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  • Pay now or pay later, not a series

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 28 08:46:53 2023
    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jul 28 10:29:33 2023
    On 7/28/2023 8:46 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O  X    |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
     | X           X    |   | O  O  O          |
     | X                |   | O  O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     | O           X    |   | X  O  X        X |
     | O           X    |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 116  O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53


    The only safe play is clearing the six, and that's ugly. I would
    probably do that if O didn't have two blots in her homeboard, but with
    those to shoot at I look for a pay-now option.....


    ....and.... I don't see a good one. This is a very awkward roll. I'll
    try 8/3 4/1 since it keeps the six point and shifts from the 4 to the
    three (not too bad). It buries a checker on the ace, so XG may hate it,
    but all the other options seem to leave too many shots.



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jul 28 14:42:42 2023
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow


    This is ugly and I'm about to make it uglier! 13/8 4/1

    Please give me a double next turn!

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 30 08:01:15 2023
    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    Congratulations to badgolferman, who found the ugly but bot-approved
    play of 13/8 4/1. O has two blots in her board, but there's no
    particularly attractive bold play available to X. See, however,
    the variant, where I have changed O's board slightly. XG still
    prefers 13/8 4/1 but it doesn't hate the bolder plays as much as
    in the original position.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/1 eq:-0.311
    Player: 43.60% (G:5.16% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 56.40% (G:16.71% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.324..-0.298) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:-0.410 (-0.098)
    Player: 40.37% (G:7.82% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 59.63% (G:23.80% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.422..-0.397) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/3 eq:-0.489 (-0.178)
    Player: 39.73% (G:12.56% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 60.27% (G:29.39% B:1.10%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.505..-0.473) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.526 (-0.215)
    Player: 39.37% (G:4.79% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 60.63% (G:21.04% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.541..-0.512) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccaba--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/1 eq:-0.315
    Player: 43.11% (G:5.36% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 56.89% (G:16.62% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.328..-0.302) - [92.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/3 eq:-0.328 (-0.013)
    Player: 41.96% (G:12.66% B:0.58%)
    Opponent: 58.04% (G:26.86% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.340..-0.316) - [7.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:-0.370 (-0.055)
    Player: 41.39% (G:7.99% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 58.61% (G:23.43% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.382..-0.359) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.510 (-0.196)
    Player: 39.58% (G:4.71% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 60.42% (G:20.53% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.526..-0.495) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Sep 23 10:39:25 2023
    On Sunday, July 30, 2023 at 8:01:19 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53
    Congratulations to badgolferman, who found the ugly but bot-approved
    play of 13/8 4/1. O has two blots in her board, but there's no
    particularly attractive bold play available to X. See, however,
    the variant, where I have changed O's board slightly. XG still
    prefers 13/8 4/1 but it doesn't hate the bolder plays as much as
    in the original position.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/1 eq:-0.311
    Player: 43.60% (G:5.16% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 56.40% (G:16.71% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.324..-0.298) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:-0.410 (-0.098)
    Player: 40.37% (G:7.82% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 59.63% (G:23.80% B:0.73%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.422..-0.397) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/3 eq:-0.489 (-0.178)
    Player: 39.73% (G:12.56% B:0.63%)
    Opponent: 60.27% (G:29.39% B:1.10%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.505..-0.473) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.526 (-0.215)
    Player: 39.37% (G:4.79% B:0.06%)
    Opponent: 60.63% (G:21.04% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.541..-0.512) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BAABbB-B---bC--aB-ccaba--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O O O |
    | X X | | O O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | X O X X |
    | O X | | X O X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53
    1. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/1 eq:-0.315
    Player: 43.11% (G:5.36% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 56.89% (G:16.62% B:0.48%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.328..-0.302) - [92.8%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10 8/3 eq:-0.328 (-0.013)
    Player: 41.96% (G:12.66% B:0.58%)
    Opponent: 58.04% (G:26.86% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.340..-0.316) - [7.2%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:-0.370 (-0.055)
    Player: 41.39% (G:7.99% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 58.61% (G:23.43% B:0.71%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.382..-0.359) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.510 (-0.196)
    Player: 39.58% (G:4.71% B:0.08%)
    Opponent: 60.42% (G:20.53% B:0.49%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.526..-0.495) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Two blots are an illusion in positions like this where if we were to leave blots/shots when the opponent hits he almost always covers one if not both of the blots.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)