XGID=--AB-bD-D---cB---Bbcbba---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
I didn't consider the hybrid play of 17/13 8/2, and there are good
arguments to be made for it, but XGR++ doesn't like it very much.
On 7/28/2023 10:24 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
I didn't consider the hybrid play of 17/13 8/2, and there are good arguments to be made for it, but XGR++ doesn't like it very much.In retrospect, I should have realized that this play can't be better
than 17/13 17/11. 17/11 forces O to give up her anchor to hit. This
is a lot more important than covering our blot on our 2pt.
---
Tim Chow
On 7/26/2023 7:37 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
This came up in the online match, with the vote overwhelmingly tilted towards paying now by clearing the 17 point. Only NeilKaz and I opted
to pay later, and as Tim observes, stacking the deuce point is clearly inferior to slotting the four point.
After a 10368 trial rollout those two plays are within .002 of each other.
I didn't consider the hybrid play of 17/13 8/2, and there are good
arguments to be made for it, but XGR++ doesn't like it very much. XGID=--AB-bD-D---cB---Bbcbba---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O X |
| O X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 132 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 17/13 17/11 eq:+0.015
Player: 50.75% (G:4.78% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 49.25% (G:10.80% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.012..+0.019) - [73.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.014 (-0.002)
Player: 50.82% (G:5.91% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 49.18% (G:10.71% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.010..+0.018) - [26.2%]
Duration: 58 minutes 06 seconds
3. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.055 (-0.070)
Player: 49.33% (G:4.81% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 50.67% (G:11.23% B:0.22%)
4. XG Roller++ 17/13 8/2 eq:-0.131 (-0.147)
Player: 46.94% (G:4.31% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 53.06% (G:11.91% B:0.23%)
5. 2-ply 13/3 eq:-0.277 (-0.292)
Player: 43.09% (G:5.39% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 56.91% (G:14.51% B:0.41%)
¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
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