Forum: >>> Magnum BBS <<<

Snake eyes to play

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jul 26 09:06:36 2023

XGID=-baB--DBB-A-cC---bAdab----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

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From Deron Staffen@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jul 26 09:35:11 2023

On Wednesday, 26 July 2023 at 07:06:39 UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-baB--DBB-A-cC---bAdab----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Seems pretty straight-forward to me: 6/5(2) 3/2(2)*

X can't move the blot on 18 or any chequers on the midpoint. 6/5 is a no-brainer, which leaves the other two 1s. Safetying the blot on 10 is a possibility, but I think you get more from the hit, even though you're weakening those chequers a bit: 9 shots
for O to stay on the bar, 1:6, 2:6 are very awkward, plus 10 remains a builder for X's 4-point. Even the 4:6 joker isn't much of a threat with the blot in O's home. Would be nice to have more builders for the prime, but a good roll overall.

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From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jul 26 19:42:20 2023

On 7/26/2023 9:06 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-baB--DBB-A-cC---bAdab----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X           O X |   | O O O          | +---+
| X           O    |   | O     O          | | 2 |
| X                |   | O                | +---+
|                  |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
| O                |   | X                |
| O           X X |   | X        X     O |
| O     X     X X |   | X        X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

Make the five point of course. Then switching points with 3/2*(2) looks stronger than 10/8, and I'm not seeing anything else. Maybe with the 25
pip race lead and O having three checkers back ultra safe play is in
order, but only 64 hits and X has a homeboard blot to shoot at if she does.

6/5(2) 3/2*(2)

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 28 08:44:12 2023

XGID=-baB--DBB-A-cC---bAdab----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 163 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

I switched points, but XG says, "Tsk tsk." Switching points is a
committal play because the 8pt and the 2pt cannot be part of the
same six-prime, so you're sacrificing considerable priming chances
for your blitz attempt. It's a different story if we shift those
checkers by one pip (see variant below).

1. Rollout¹ 10/8 6/5(2) eq:+0.587
Player: 74.45% (G:22.70% B:2.01%)
Opponent: 25.55% (G:5.19% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.579..+0.595) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 3/2*(2) eq:+0.505 (-0.082)
Player: 70.61% (G:23.79% B:2.48%)
Opponent: 29.39% (G:5.87% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.497..+0.514) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b-aB-DBB-A-cC---bAdab----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 6/5(2) 4/3*(2) eq:+0.675
Player: 75.73% (G:26.66% B:2.80%)
Opponent: 24.27% (G:4.31% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.666..+0.684) - [85.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/8 6/5(2) eq:+0.668 (-0.007)
Player: 77.96% (G:21.26% B:1.64%)
Opponent: 22.04% (G:3.82% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.660..+0.676) - [14.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Aug 18 08:31:17 2023

XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Aug 20 09:01:01 2023

XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

I succumbed to the fear of getting attacked and played 24/22 8/6, but
Magriel's criteria all point to a bold play here.

1. Rollout¹ 22/20 8/6 eq:-0.717
Player: 30.37% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 69.63% (G:12.35% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.729..-0.705) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/5 eq:-0.739 (-0.022)
Player: 29.39% (G:5.65% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 70.61% (G:11.03% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.750..-0.728) - [0.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 eq:-0.777 (-0.060)
Player: 28.99% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 71.01% (G:11.44% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.790..-0.763) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/7 3/2(2) eq:-0.797 (-0.080)
Player: 28.74% (G:5.36% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 71.26% (G:11.88% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.810..-0.784) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.835 (-0.118)
Player: 26.37% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 73.63% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.845..-0.824) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Sep 27 07:29:19 2023

On Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:01:05 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
I succumbed to the fear of getting attacked and played 24/22 8/6, but Magriel's criteria all point to a bold play here.

1. Rollout¹ 22/20 8/6 eq:-0.717
Player: 30.37% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 69.63% (G:12.35% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.729..-0.705) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/5 eq:-0.739 (-0.022)
Player: 29.39% (G:5.65% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 70.61% (G:11.03% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.750..-0.728) - [0.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 eq:-0.777 (-0.060)
Player: 28.99% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 71.01% (G:11.44% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.790..-0.763) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/7 3/2(2) eq:-0.797 (-0.080)
Player: 28.74% (G:5.36% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 71.26% (G:11.88% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.810..-0.784) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.835 (-0.118)
Player: 26.37% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 73.63% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.845..-0.824) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

You made a play you hopefully wouldn't even consider at dmp? Figured you want to hear it lol

Stick

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