https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047Hmmm, I'm having second thoughts now.
I was enjoying the match up to that point but I just can't stomach
Mario Kuehl's drop. It's awful! There are 14 misses which immediately lose. Yes, Mochy has gammons but this drop is ridiculous.
I find these youtube videos can be frustrating to watch.
Is there some law that forbids non-Giants from competent play?
Paul
On 7/25/2023 3:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:03:37 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote: >>> https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047
I would take here, but it's not a pleasant take at the match score.
As you say, there are some gammons, which win the match, but the gammon
value is reduced.
On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:03:37 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047Hmmm, I'm having second thoughts now.
I was enjoying the match up to that point but I just can't stomach
Mario Kuehl's drop. It's awful! There are 14 misses which immediately lose. >> Yes, Mochy has gammons but this drop is ridiculous.
I find these youtube videos can be frustrating to watch.
Is there some law that forbids non-Giants from competent play?
Paul
Ignoring recubes, if Mario takes the score will be either 8-2 or 10-0.
As a first approximation, assume these scores just win.
I can see that you might pass to get to 13A 11A which is very close.
I'm a bit sceptical of the pass but I don't think it's as terrible a play as a money
pass. And it could even be correct. Tim (and some others) would know.
I was curious about the earlier recube to 4. Even though it's
an 11-point match, a player who leads by 2 points should generally
be cautious about redoubling to 4. According to the rollout below,
the redouble to 4 was a mistake, but in my opinion, if the skill
difference is taken into account, the double is justifiable. It's
a volatile, gammonish position, which is exactly the sort of game
in which the weaker player wants to jack up the cube value.
XGID=---B--D-Cbb-dB--B--c-b-b-B:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10
Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O | | X X | +---+
| O O O | | X X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X | | X O O O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 144 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.40% (G:30.77% B:1.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.60% (G:8.34% B:0.42%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.33% (G:31.25% B:1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.67% (G:8.60% B:0.89%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.728
Redouble/Take: +0.587 (-0.141)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.272)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.1% Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.716..+0.739)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.568..+0.606)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
I'm sorry, Tim but it's a 15 point match, not an 11 point match.
I think this makes the drop I initially complained about even worse.
I was curious about the earlier recube to 4. Even though it's
an 11-point match, a player who leads by 2 points should generally
be cautious about redoubling to 4. According to the rollout below,
the redouble to 4 was a mistake, but in my opinion, if the skill
difference is taken into account, the double is justifiable. It's
a volatile, gammonish position, which is exactly the sort of game
in which the weaker player wants to jack up the cube value.
XGID=---B--D-Cbb-dB--B--c-b-b-B:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10
Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O | | X X | +---+
| O O O | | X X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X | | X O O O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 144 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.40% (G:30.77% B:1.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.60% (G:8.34% B:0.42%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.33% (G:31.25% B:1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.67% (G:8.60% B:0.89%)
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.728
Redouble/Take: +0.587 (-0.141)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.272)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.1% Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.716..+0.739)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.568..+0.606)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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