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  • Only two reasonable plays...

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 22 08:34:13 2023
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Jul 22 07:54:38 2023
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
    I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
    what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence
    reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.

    I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem.
    It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
    and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
    Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
    If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
    isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.

    7/1*

    Paul

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Renan Moritz@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jul 22 15:06:48 2023
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:54:39 AM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42
    It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
    I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
    what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.

    I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem.
    It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
    and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
    Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
    If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
    isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.

    7/1*

    Paul

    I hit, so I can close with "1" and escape with 4&5
    I suppose the other "reasonable play" is 22/18, 7/5.
    If the machine says that this is the correct play I could make some arguments for it - there is a blot in the opponent's board, the opponent's "6" are duplicated and so on - but no Quiz Factor in the world would make me play this over the board

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Renan Moritz on Sun Jul 23 02:39:52 2023
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:06:51 PM UTC+1, Renan Moritz wrote:
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:54:39 AM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+ +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42
    It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
    I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
    what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.

    I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem. It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
    and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
    Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
    If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
    isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.

    7/1*

    Paul
    I hit, so I can close with "1" and escape with 4&5
    I suppose the other "reasonable play" is 22/18, 7/5.
    If the machine says that this is the correct play I could make some arguments for it - there is a blot in the opponent's board, the opponent's "6" are duplicated and so on - but no Quiz Factor in the world would make me play this over the board

    As I said, you could consider 22/18 3/1*

    Tim can be a bit tricky.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Jul 23 13:33:19 2023
    On 7/22/2023 8:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |          O  O    |   | O  O  O  X  X  O |
     |          O  O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
     |                  |   |    O             |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |             X    | +---+
     | O                |   | X  X  X  X  X    | | 4 |
     | O              X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O | +---+
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 116  O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    I get dinged a lot for failing to hit in similar positions. After
    hitting loose on the ace, sixes are killed while 4s and 5s escape, so
    there's plenty of chance to escape the runners later.

    OTOH, running gives O a lot of chances to misplay her roll, so may it be
    better practical play.

    But I'll hit loose here and take my lumps in the rollout.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 24 08:30:14 2023
    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    Like Renan, I understand the argument for 22/18 7/5, but even now,
    I don't know that I would be able to bring myself to play it over
    the board. As Variant 1 illustrates, it's only because X is
    totally out of time on his side of the board that 7/1* is deemed
    a blunder by XG.

    Paul is right to say that 22/18 3/1* is a candidate, but I didn't
    consider it, and XG thinks it's in quadruple-whopper territory.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:-0.059
    Player: 41.48% (G:17.49% B:0.86%)
    Opponent: 58.52% (G:18.21% B:0.83%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.066..-0.051) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.143 (-0.085)
    Player: 38.29% (G:14.87% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 61.71% (G:18.27% B:0.80%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.154..-0.132) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-aBBCBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X O |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 118 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:+0.007
    Player: 42.73% (G:17.85% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 57.27% (G:16.16% B:0.65%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.002..+0.015) - [56.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:+0.006 (-0.001)
    Player: 43.32% (G:19.06% B:1.19%)
    Opponent: 56.68% (G:17.22% B:0.76%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (0.000..+0.012) - [43.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-ccbBA--:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O X X |
    | O O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X | +---+
    | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
    | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 4, X own cube
    X to play 42

    1. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.330
    Player: 33.01% (G:11.47% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 66.99% (G:19.63% B:0.90%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.340..-0.320) - [99.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:-0.348 (-0.018)
    Player: 33.07% (G:12.61% B:0.48%)
    Opponent: 66.93% (G:23.38% B:1.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.356..-0.339) - [0.4%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Thu Sep 21 10:17:37 2023
    On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 8:34:15 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

    I think you just like assuring you're right sometimes because you're not wrong. Not sure why it's the sarcastic surprise you make it out to be. XG sees only one real play. The play is crystal clear at dmp. It shouldn't be a shocker that I get lucky
    and get one right every now and again.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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