XGID=-a---BDBBaA--B--aade---bB-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X |
| X O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/13/2023 9:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a---BDBBaA--B--aade---bB-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O  O |   | O           O  X | +---+
 | X              O |   | O           O  X | | 2 |
 |                O |   | O                | +---+
 |                O |   | O                |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X  X |   | X  X             |
 |       X  O  X  X |   | X  X           O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 148  O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

O has a single checker behind the prime and four blots to shoot at. Both
point towards an attacking strategy instead of priming. Which favors
making the four. Also, behind in the race facing a weak board means an exchange of hits favors X, more so if the four point is make.

The four prime looks strong and I'm not eager to break it, but my
evolving criteria for these plays is to make the four point.

7/4 6/4.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a---BDBBaA--B--aade---bB-:1:-1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X |
| X O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 119 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

O's board is weak and the safe play of 10/5 places a miserable 6th
place in the rollout. Magriel's criteria favor a bold play, and
making the 4pt is the bold play with the biggest upside.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:+0.121
Player: 60.76% (G:19.77% B:1.38%)
Opponent: 39.24% (G:14.95% B:1.71%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.111..+0.132) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/4 eq:+0.073 (-0.048)
Player: 60.48% (G:15.99% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 39.52% (G:14.69% B:1.64%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.062..+0.084) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7 6/4 eq:+0.024 (-0.097)
Player: 57.74% (G:16.42% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 42.26% (G:14.16% B:1.25%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.011..+0.037) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.012 (-0.133)
Player: 55.48% (G:20.20% B:1.73%)
Opponent: 44.52% (G:16.15% B:1.72%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.024..+0.001) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.016 (-0.137)
Player: 56.58% (G:15.47% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 43.42% (G:13.92% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.026..-0.005) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 10/5 eq:-0.025 (-0.146)
Player: 55.69% (G:16.04% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 44.31% (G:13.18% B:0.95%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.035..-0.014) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)