XGID=-a----E-CAA-bE--aabd-b-b--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/12/2023 8:57 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a----E-CAA-bE--aabd-b-b--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O  O |   | O     O     O    |
 | X              O |   | O     O     O    |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |             X    |   | X                |
 | O           X    |   | X                |
 | O     X  X  X    |   | X              O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 138  O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

"Attack a single checker, prime two" is an over-generalized aphorism,
but with O ahead in the race, she'll try to spring her runner and we'll
try to hit it, and if we do the four point works better than the 7 point.

Also, making the four unstacks the six point. Yeah, making the bar point unstacks the midpoint, but it's harder to unstack the six, so do what's
hard first.

Also also, if it's not clear to make the bar, make the four (a rule of
thumb hypothesis that's still being tested.)

8/4 6/4.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a----E-CAA-bE--aabd-b-b--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

The equity difference here is not as large as in some of my other
problems, but it's pretty big for such an early-game position.
Making the 4pt seems to be the natural play here, unstacking the
6pt and preparing to attack O's blot. But there are a few things
to note about this position that distinguish it from a typical
early-game position. First, X has already escaped his back
checkers, and O has the stronger board. That means that X has
some incentive to play safe, and is probably not going to want to
launch an all-out attack, complete with abundant loose hits.
Second, X is well behind in the pip count. So his primary game
plan is to contain rather than to attack. Making the bar point
gives X better chances of building a solid prime, which is probably
his best bet for containment.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:-0.194
Player: 43.84% (G:3.83% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 56.16% (G:10.85% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.199..-0.189) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.241 (-0.047)
Player: 42.61% (G:4.24% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 57.39% (G:11.32% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.246..-0.237) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, July 14, 2023 at 7:25:41 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a----E-CAA-bE--aabd-b-b--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 138 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62
The equity difference here is not as large as in some of my other
problems, but it's pretty big for such an early-game position.
Making the 4pt seems to be the natural play here, unstacking the
6pt and preparing to attack O's blot. But there are a few things
to note about this position that distinguish it from a typical
early-game position. First, X has already escaped his back
checkers, and O has the stronger board. That means that X has
some incentive to play safe, and is probably not going to want to
launch an all-out attack, complete with abundant loose hits.
Second, X is well behind in the pip count. So his primary game
plan is to contain rather than to attack. Making the bar point
gives X better chances of building a solid prime, which is probably
his best bet for containment.

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/7 eq:-0.194
Player: 43.84% (G:3.83% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 56.16% (G:10.85% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.199..-0.189) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.241 (-0.047)
Player: 42.61% (G:4.24% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 57.39% (G:11.32% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.246..-0.237) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

I don't really consider this the early game any more but w/e. The main reason for making the bar in positions where we want to contain is the removal of any single roll allowing the opponent's checker to escape cleanly [65]. Having made the bar we now
assure that even if the opponent rolls well and hops into our outfield it will be a hop and not a jump or a leap. I know it's almost a meaningless detail too but let's say the opponent hops with [64 54 63] then we have small numbers that hit him and
larger numbers that help us catch up a bit in the race if we miss him. How I've always looked at it anyway.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)