XGID=---BBCC-A---------fedBB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| 6 | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X O O |
| X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 141 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action




--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/11/2023 3:35 PM, ah....Clem wrote:

XGID=---BBCC-A---------fedBB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:X   O:O
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |             O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
 |                  |   | O  O  O  O       |
 |                  |   | O  O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                6 |   | X                |
 |                X |   | X  X             |
 |                X |   | X  X             |
 |                X |   | X  X  O  O       |
 |                X |   | X  X  O  O       |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 92  O: 141 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I'd pass this one. O's timing is poor, and her 3-5 backgame is not
going to generate shots any time soon. Only 3's are awkward for X,
and I don't think that's enough for a take.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

The usual advice is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
clear in front of it. Sometimes it's a take, sometimes a pass, but the standard dictum says ship it, which X did OTB and XG says is correct.

What about the take? Not enough timing to hold the anchor without the
board crunching and as Tim observes no immediate blotting rolls. Seemed
like a pass to me (which is what I did Otb), but XG begs to differ.

Why might that be?

Well, I see O being forced off one of the anchors fairly soon, leaving a
nasty gap while her board stays strong. And due to the advanced nature
of a 4-3 backgame there aren't that many gammons. That's the best I've got.

Rollout says it's a very small .019 error to pass, while XGR++ says
passing is a medium sized .059 error. I'm not including a variant since
given how small the take is, seems like just about any improvement for X
would be a pass.

XGID=---BBCC-A---------fedBB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

X:Player 2 O:Player 1
Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| 6 | | X |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X O O |
| X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 141 X-O: 0-0/5
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.29% (G:13.05% B:0.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.71% (G:2.19% B:0.07%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.61% (G:12.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.39% (G:2.16% B:0.08%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.567, Double=+1.166

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.928 (-0.053)
Double/Take: +0.981
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.019)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.919..+0.938)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.968..+0.994)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.8%

Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)