XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/11/2023 9:19 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X        O  O    |   | O  O           X |
 | X           O    |   | O  O           X |
 |             O    |   | O  O             |
 |                  |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X        X     O |
 | O           X  X |   | X        X     O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 140  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

The bar point is already made, so presumably the question is whether to
break it to make the four. Or the five.

Making the five point leaves two blots and does nothing to unstack the
six point, so I'll discount that play.

U is thematic, since this is starting to look like a priming battle -
keep the bar, activate the runners. X is slightly ahead in the race so
running is in order. But the eleven checkers poised to rain down on X's
head make me nervous about that play.

Since it looks like a priming game, I'll keep the bar point, but U seems
to risky. D looks good, 13 in the zone to solidify the prime. I'll play
that.

13/10 13/11.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 10:40:44 AM UTC-3, ah....Clem wrote:

On 7/11/2023 9:19 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

The bar point is already made, so presumably the question is whether to break it to make the four. Or the five.

Making the five point leaves two blots and does nothing to unstack the
six point, so I'll discount that play.

U is thematic, since this is starting to look like a priming battle -
keep the bar, activate the runners. X is slightly ahead in the race so running is in order. But the eleven checkers poised to rain down on X's
head make me nervous about that play.

Since it looks like a priming game, I'll keep the bar point, but U seems
to risky. D looks good, 13 in the zone to solidify the prime. I'll play that.

13/10 13/11.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

The idea here is to make the 4th point.
This is thematic in this kind of position (big stack on the 6th point, not anything much better to do, position improves a lot if risk is rewarded)
I would play this without hesitation, except that here the O "6" that hits is not very useful anywhere else, and also X is not that interested in playing a prime game
Well since this is an Internet quiz - I made the 4th; but I do not think it will be a large difference and I can imagine a team partner dissuading me from playing it in favor of "two down" or such.
(BTW this is a great series, very informative, thanks so much)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
back checkers.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, July 13, 2023 at 10:18:16 AM UTC-3, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
back checkers.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

*Now" I am always make the 4th

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, July 13, 2023 at 9:18:16 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
back checkers.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32
1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

A lot of these problems can be simplified to 'where is the biggest stack, play from there'. The simplification will steer you wrong every now and again of course but overall it's the best way to go.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)