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  • 5a 5a deuce point game cube action

    From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jul 8 17:25:54 2023
    XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

    X:X O:O
    Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 131 X-O: 0-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sun Jul 9 08:57:47 2023
    On 7/8/2023 5:25 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

    X:X   O:O
    Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X     O     O    |   | O  O  O        O |
     | X           O    |   | O     O        O |
     |                  |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |             X    |   |                  |
     |             X    |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X  X     X  O  X |
     | O           X    |   | X  X     X  O  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 94  O: 131 X-O: 0-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    O is 37 pips down and her board is a bit of a mess. Even if she hits
    a shot right away, she may not be able to contain the straggler. Her
    main compensation is that X's position isn't so hot either. Two of
    X's checkers are behind O's anchor, and he has a dangerous gap on his
    4pt. His 6's blot immediately (except 66, which still leaves future
    blotting danger) and a few other rolls leave an indirect shot. I think
    O can take. Is it a double? I suspect that if X clears the midpoint
    safely on this roll then it will probably be a pass. D/T for me.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jul 10 18:20:43 2023
    A couple of indicators that I use that may or may not be relevant here:

    A deuce point game when your opponent has escaped his runners is usually
    a pass.

    Owning your ace point is an indicator that you should pass.

    Conversely, owning your ace point is an indicator that it's not a cube.

    None of these are dispositive, but I use them as a rough guide.

    Here, it's 2 to 1 in favor of D/P vs ND/T. So it shouldn't be too much
    of a surprise that XG four ply, XGR+, and XGR++ all say that it's a
    take, while a full rollout says it's a pass by .020.

    I passed this one and didn't look at the rollout until now. Thought I
    got it wrong, but apparently not.


    Score is not much of a factor; I've included a rollout for unlimited below.


    XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 131 X-O: 0-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:11.25% B:0.51%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:2.70% B:0.11%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.74% (G:10.70% B:0.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.26% (G:2.58% B:0.10%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.582, Double=+1.195

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.915 (-0.085)
    Double/Take: +1.020 (+0.020)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.908..+0.922)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.009..+1.031)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



    ///////////////////
    //unlimited
    //////////////////


    XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.90% (G:11.08% B:0.49%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.10% (G:2.64% B:0.06%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.65% (G:10.66% B:0.41%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.35% (G:2.52% B:0.06%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.587, Double=+1.196

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.909 (-0.091)
    Double/Take: +1.034 (+0.034)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.901..+0.917)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.023..+1.045)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Tue Sep 19 12:34:05 2023
    On Monday, July 10, 2023 at 6:20:45 PM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
    A couple of indicators that I use that may or may not be relevant here:

    A deuce point game when your opponent has escaped his runners is usually
    a pass.

    Owning your ace point is an indicator that you should pass.

    Conversely, owning your ace point is an indicator that it's not a cube.

    None of these are dispositive, but I use them as a rough guide.

    Here, it's 2 to 1 in favor of D/P vs ND/T. So it shouldn't be too much
    of a surprise that XG four ply, XGR+, and XGR++ all say that it's a
    take, while a full rollout says it's a pass by .020.

    I passed this one and didn't look at the rollout until now. Thought I
    got it wrong, but apparently not.


    Score is not much of a factor; I've included a rollout for unlimited below. XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 131 X-O: 0-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.93% (G:11.25% B:0.51%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.07% (G:2.70% B:0.11%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.74% (G:10.70% B:0.40%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.26% (G:2.58% B:0.10%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.582, Double=+1.195

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.915 (-0.085)
    Double/Take: +1.020 (+0.020)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.908..+0.922)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.009..+1.031)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2



    ///////////////////
    //unlimited
    //////////////////


    XGID=-B--BAC-B-A-bB---d-cb-bBb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 2 O:Player 1
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O |
    | X O | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    | O X | | X X X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 94 O: 131 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.90% (G:11.08% B:0.49%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.10% (G:2.64% B:0.06%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.65% (G:10.66% B:0.41%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.35% (G:2.52% B:0.06%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.587, Double=+1.196

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.909 (-0.091)
    Double/Take: +1.034 (+0.034)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.901..+0.917)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.023..+1.045)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    5 away 5 away is similar in its initial cube decisions generally because even though the take point is a little lower compared to unlimited games, the gammon value on a 2 cube is a little higher so they end up canceling each other out for the most part.
    Here I'd have passed with our ace point made but taken if it was shifted up to a better point.

    It should be noted too that a 23pt anchor game when your opponent has escaped his back checkers but he still has the midpoint and has points not made in front of your anchor is generally a take. Details matter of course but for a normal-esque position
    taking should definitely be the default.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)