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  • Not-so-early blitz cube

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jul 7 08:23:26 2023
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jul 7 15:28:25 2023
    On Friday, July 7, 2023 at 1:23:29 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Big double, big take.
    Not many rolls will escape our 18 point checkers.
    We may decide to break the 18 point anchor while our
    opponent is on the bar, but that is likely to give the
    opponent many dangerous return hits.
    Basically, bringing the 18 point checkers home is enough
    of a problem to give the opponent a take.

    But should we double?
    Yes. Making another inner board point, followed by the opponent's
    dance could lose our market. Doubles that advance our 18 point anchor
    could lose our market. Breaking the 18 point while the opponent's on the bar, without the opponent hitting, could lose market.

    D/T

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Renan Moritz@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat Jul 8 07:11:12 2023
    On Friday, July 7, 2023 at 7:28:27 PM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, July 7, 2023 at 1:23:29 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Big double, big take.
    Not many rolls will escape our 18 point checkers.
    We may decide to break the 18 point anchor while our
    opponent is on the bar, but that is likely to give the
    opponent many dangerous return hits.
    Basically, bringing the 18 point checkers home is enough
    of a problem to give the opponent a take.

    But should we double?
    Yes. Making another inner board point, followed by the opponent's
    dance could lose our market. Doubles that advance our 18 point anchor
    could lose our market. Breaking the 18 point while the opponent's on the bar,
    without the opponent hitting, could lose market.

    D/T

    Paul

    Agreed
    Regards,

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Jul 8 12:59:29 2023
    On 7/7/2023 8:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  X |   | O     O  O       |
     |             O  X |   | O     O  O       |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X        X     X |
     | O  X        X  X |   | X        X     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 108  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action




    13 in the zone, 3 point board, and a checker on the roof. Seems like a
    ton of market losers and few if any really bad sequences.

    Can O take? If she manages to enter and run to the outfield she's right
    back in it, plus X's made ace point is a liability. So, I'll go with D/T.


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Jul 8 13:00:05 2023
    On 7/7/2023 8:23 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |             O  X |   | O     O  O       |
     |             O  X |   | O     O  O       |
     |             O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X                |
     | O              X |   | X        X     X |
     | O  X        X  X |   | X        X     X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 108  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow




    13 in the zone, 3 point board, a checker on the roof. Seems like a ton
    of market losers and few if any really bad sequences.

    Can O take? If she manages to enter and run to the outfield she's right
    back in it, plus X's made ace point is a liability. So, I'll go with D/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jul 9 09:16:45 2023
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I find late blitz cubes harder to master than early blitz cubes,
    because there are a lot more variables to consider. O is down
    25 pips and X has 13 checkers in the zone, with his back checkers
    partially escaped. X's attack looked threatening enough to me
    that I passed. However, XG says that O can take. There are a
    lot of variants worth considering here, but I'll give just one.
    If we shift X's 1pt to his 2pt then XG says it's a clear pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.79% (G:26.04% B:0.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.21% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.69% (G:26.27% B:0.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.31% (G:6.13% B:0.29%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.696 (-0.132)
    Double/Take: +0.828
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.172)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.687..+0.706)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.813..+0.844)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BB--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 110 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:27.02% B:0.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.04% B:0.20%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.71% (G:27.88% B:0.22%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.29% (G:5.33% B:0.25%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.793 (-0.207)
    Double/Take: +1.073 (+0.073)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.783..+0.802)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.059..+1.086)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Sep 19 12:27:16 2023
    On Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 9:16:49 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aB-B--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 108 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    I find late blitz cubes harder to master than early blitz cubes,
    because there are a lot more variables to consider. O is down
    25 pips and X has 13 checkers in the zone, with his back checkers
    partially escaped. X's attack looked threatening enough to me
    that I passed. However, XG says that O can take. There are a
    lot of variants worth considering here, but I'll give just one.
    If we shift X's 1pt to his 2pt then XG says it's a clear pass.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.79% (G:26.04% B:0.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.21% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.69% (G:26.27% B:0.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.31% (G:6.13% B:0.29%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.696 (-0.132)
    Double/Take: +0.828
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.172)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.687..+0.706)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.813..+0.844)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BB--DCA--Ad----cBc-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O X | | O O O |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X X X |
    | O X X X | | X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 110 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:27.02% B:0.20%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.04% B:0.20%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 70.71% (G:27.88% B:0.22%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 29.29% (G:5.33% B:0.25%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.793 (-0.207)
    Double/Take: +1.073 (+0.073)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.783..+0.802)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.059..+1.086)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    In your variant you should include the _why_ of shifting from the ace point to the deuce point makes it a pass. On the surface it sounds like 'hey, we got a better point so turns it into a pass'. That's not the case of course though. If we were to shift
    our 3pt to the 4pt there wouldn't be much of a difference in the take/pass decision. That's because when we shift the one point to the two point and we have the made bar point now we've made it so a whole lot more of our opponent's entering numbers aren'
    t nearly as good as they're primed in when they do get in.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)