XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O's only asset is her 4pt anchor. The extra straggler is more of a
liability than an asset; O has no structure, so the extra contact
favors X, who has increased gammon chances from the potential to
attack that straggler. X's only liability is his own straggler.
Does that give O enough counterplay to take? According to XG, no.
But it's not as big a pass as one might think, because the high
anchor covers over a multitude of sins.

In the variant, I have moved one of X's spares around the board to
O's bar point. This could be considered a reference position, not
because it's right on the borderline of anything, but because it is
simple enough to memorize easily.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.75% (G:16.94% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.25% (G:3.76% B:0.12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.21% (G:18.09% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.79% (G:4.13% B:0.16%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.958 (-0.042)
Double/Take: +1.073 (+0.073)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.950..+0.966)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.056..+1.089)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--bBCBBB--cB---dAe----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.58% (G:14.26% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.42% (G:4.14% B:0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.39% (G:14.66% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.61% (G:4.25% B:0.14%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.925 (-0.042)
Double/Take: +0.967
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.033)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.917..+0.934)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.955..+0.980)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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