XGID=-a--BaE-BB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/4/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--BaE-BB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X  X     O  O  O |   | O  O  O  O       |
 | X                |   | O  O  O  O       |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                  |   | X                | +---+
 | O        X  X    |   | X     X          | | 2 |
 | O        X  X    |   | X  O  X        O | +---+
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 125  O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

Some plays leave two blots and some only leave one. With O's strong
board, it seems like one blot should be better than two.

13/6 only leaves one blot, but strips the midpoint while stacking a
sixth checker on the six. Seems like the wrong approach.

The other two one-blot plays are 14/7 and 14/8 6/5*. The latter
unstacks the six point, slots a better point, and gains tempo. I'll try
that.

13/6 6/5*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/4/2023 10:21 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

On 7/4/2023 8:39 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--BaE-BB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
  | X  X     O  O  O |   | O  O  O  O       |
  | X                |   | O  O  O  O       |
  | X                |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |   |                  |
  |                  |BAR|                  |
  |                  |   | X                |
  |                  |   | X                |
  |                  |   | X                | +---+
  | O        X  X    |   | X     X          | | 2 |
  | O        X  X    |   | X  O  X        O | +---+ >>   +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 125  O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

Some plays leave two blots and some only leave one.  With O's strong
board, it seems like one blot should be better than two.

13/6 only leaves one blot, but strips the midpoint while stacking a
sixth checker on the six.  Seems like the wrong approach.

The other two one-blot plays are 14/7 and 14/8 6/5*.  The latter
unstacks the six point, slots a better point, and gains tempo.  I'll try that.

13/6 6/5*

It looks like you misread the roll as 61 (and then mistyped 14/8 as
13/6).

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

quite tricky. I guess minimizing hits is the by far most important thing, given Os board strength

14/5 -> each 5, 14, 23, 24, 34 -> 19 uhoh
14/8,13/10 -> each 5, 22, 6-3 -> 14
13/4 -> each 2, 54, 63 -> 15
13/8,6/3 -> each 2, 11 -> 12

did I overlook one?

13/8,6/3 has the additional advantage of unstacking.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--BaE-BB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

Knocking O off the 5pt is tempting, but all factors point to a safe
play. It's hard to find a variant where XG hits; see Variant 2.

1. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/3 eq:+0.260
Player: 54.73% (G:5.53% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 45.27% (G:12.22% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.253..+0.268) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 13/10 eq:+0.103 (-0.157)
Player: 49.52% (G:4.98% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 50.48% (G:13.95% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.096..+0.110) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/8 9/6 eq:+0.059 (-0.201)
Player: 47.66% (G:5.76% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 52.34% (G:15.20% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.051..+0.067) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:+0.049 (-0.212)
Player: 47.14% (G:10.60% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:20.16% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.041..+0.056) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a--BaD-CB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/3 eq:+0.213
Player: 53.42% (G:5.17% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 46.58% (G:13.20% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.209..+0.217) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:+0.141 (-0.072)
Player: 50.22% (G:10.64% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 49.78% (G:19.27% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.135..+0.146) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a--BaC-DB--bCA-aaabbbb---:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X O X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 14/5* eq:+0.107
Player: 49.72% (G:9.62% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.28% (G:20.48% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.100..+0.115) - [82.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/3 eq:+0.103 (-0.005)
Player: 50.26% (G:6.01% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 49.74% (G:17.25% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.097..+0.109) - [17.4%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O | +---+
| X O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, July 17, 2023 at 9:53:55 AM UTC-3, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O | +---+
| X O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

I am an intermediate, therefore when I see a duplication I like to play it (13\2).
But it doesn't sound right here, so the only other move I can think of is <make the 2pt> straightening the position with low risk

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O | +---+
| X O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

I don't want to break the midpoint yet and there's no compelling reason
to move the anchor on the 20-point. May as well make an anchor in my
home board.

8/2, 6/2

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 7/17/2023 8:53 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X              O |   | O  X     O       | +---+
 | X              O |   | O  X     O       | | 2 |
 |                O |   | O                | +---+
 |                O |   | O                |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 |                X |   | X                |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  O          |
 | O           X  X |   | X  X  O        O |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 137  O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Ahead in the race, X wants to play it safe, but as the title suggests
there is no safe play.

I'll try the distraction play of 20/14 7h/1*

Aces are duped and if X isn't hit he should be able to tidy up with a
nice race lead. O's board is weak, so this looks playable.

So do 20/11 or bring two down. But I like the idea of taking away half
her roll by putting her on the roof. Maybe 13/9 7/1* is the bot play,
but I prefer to keep the midpoint and run for it.


--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O | +---+
| X O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

None of the respondents suggested the bot play of 20/16 20/14. It might
seem suicidal to abandon the security of the anchor and volunteer two
blots, but X is ahead in the race, O's midpoint is stripped, and her
board is weak. 20/16 20/14 does give O some joker double-hitting rolls,
but even some of her better single-hitting rolls such as 43 or 64 are
not disasters by any means. More to the point, if O does not roll well,
then X has solved one of his main problems. Something like 13/9 13/7
avoids giving O jokers, but still leaves him with the problem of
breaking his anchor under what may be less favorable circumstances.

See the variant to get a sense of how much stronger O's offensive
position needs to be to dissuade XG from 20/16 20/14.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 20/14 eq:+0.280
Player: 67.53% (G:11.98% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 32.47% (G:7.97% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.272..+0.288) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:+0.187 (-0.093)
Player: 62.93% (G:12.43% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 37.07% (G:6.13% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.180..+0.195) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.187 (-0.093)
Player: 62.07% (G:15.21% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 37.93% (G:6.79% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.179..+0.195) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB---bccBb----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 20/14 eq:+0.093
Player: 60.92% (G:12.30% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 39.08% (G:10.57% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.083..+0.102) - [91.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:+0.084 (-0.009)
Player: 58.84% (G:12.28% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 41.16% (G:6.56% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.076..+0.092) - [8.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.064 (-0.029)
Player: 57.70% (G:14.59% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 42.30% (G:7.79% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.055..+0.072) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Wednesday, July 19, 2023 at 8:13:31 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB----ddB-b---:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O | +---+
| X O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
None of the respondents suggested the bot play of 20/16 20/14. It might
seem suicidal to abandon the security of the anchor and volunteer two
blots, but X is ahead in the race, O's midpoint is stripped, and her
board is weak. 20/16 20/14 does give O some joker double-hitting rolls,
but even some of her better single-hitting rolls such as 43 or 64 are
not disasters by any means. More to the point, if O does not roll well,
then X has solved one of his main problems. Something like 13/9 13/7
avoids giving O jokers, but still leaves him with the problem of
breaking his anchor under what may be less favorable circumstances.

See the variant to get a sense of how much stronger O's offensive
position needs to be to dissuade XG from 20/16 20/14.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 20/14 eq:+0.280
Player: 67.53% (G:11.98% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 32.47% (G:7.97% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.272..+0.288) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:+0.187 (-0.093)
Player: 62.93% (G:12.43% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 37.07% (G:6.13% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.180..+0.195) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.187 (-0.093)
Player: 62.07% (G:15.21% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 37.93% (G:6.79% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.179..+0.195) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--bBDCB---bB---bccBb----:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O | +---+
| X O O | | O X O | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 20/16 20/14 eq:+0.093
Player: 60.92% (G:12.30% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 39.08% (G:10.57% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.083..+0.102) - [91.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/7 eq:+0.084 (-0.009)
Player: 58.84% (G:12.28% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 41.16% (G:6.56% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.076..+0.092) - [8.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:+0.064 (-0.029)
Player: 57.70% (G:14.59% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 42.30% (G:7.79% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.055..+0.072) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Not only did nobody suggest the correct play, nobody even really mentioned the only play that should be considered in lieu of the best play!?? (two out and two down respectively)

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 9/21/2023 11:47 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

Not only did nobody suggest the correct play, nobody even really mentioned the only play that should be considered in lieu of the best play!?? (two out and two down respectively)

For the benefit of readers who aren't used to reading Tricky Stick
language, ah...clem did mention two down. This of course does not
disprove what Tricky Stick said, because Tricky Stick will counter
that ah...clem didn't *really* mention two down.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)