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  • Third-roll position (53P-44B-22)

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jun 24 08:14:13 2023
    XGID=---B-bD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Jun 24 10:03:32 2023
    On 6/24/2023 8:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---B-bD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O  O    |   | O              X |
     | X        O  O    |   | O              X |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     | X                |   | O                |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X                |
     | O           X    |   | X  O     X       |
     | O           X    |   | X  O     X       |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 159  O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    Two adages apply here:

    "Make either five point before making either 4 or 7 point."
    and
    "It's usually better to make new points than just shift existing ones."

    They are in conflict with each other, but I'll make the two new points
    instead of the anchor. More points and it unstacks the mid and six
    points. The downside is how many stripped points it leaves (the "too
    many points" syndrome) but I can live with that.

    13/11(2) 6/4(2)



    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Jun 26 07:38:37 2023
    XGID=---B-bD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22

    If the opponent has an advanced anchor, and you're still on the 24pt,
    then you must get off the 24pt.

    What surprised me, though, was how bad XG thought 24/22(2) 13/11(2)
    or 24/22(2) 6/4(2) was. But the race is even, so there's no good
    reason to stay back.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/20(2) eq:-0.118
    Player: 46.47% (G:5.63% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 53.53% (G:5.70% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.128..-0.108) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.281 (-0.163)
    Player: 42.83% (G:7.81% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.17% (G:10.78% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.295..-0.267) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.283 (-0.165)
    Player: 44.46% (G:7.48% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 55.54% (G:16.00% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.297..-0.268) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) 13/11(2) eq:-0.298 (-0.180)
    Player: 42.51% (G:7.98% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.49% (G:12.61% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.284) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jun 28 08:31:49 2023
    On Monday, June 26, 2023 at 7:38:40 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=---B-bD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    | O X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 159 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 22
    If the opponent has an advanced anchor, and you're still on the 24pt,
    then you must get off the 24pt.

    What surprised me, though, was how bad XG thought 24/22(2) 13/11(2)
    or 24/22(2) 6/4(2) was. But the race is even, so there's no good
    reason to stay back.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/20(2) eq:-0.118
    Player: 46.47% (G:5.63% B:0.18%)
    Opponent: 53.53% (G:5.70% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.128..-0.108) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.281 (-0.163)
    Player: 42.83% (G:7.81% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.17% (G:10.78% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.295..-0.267) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 13/11(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.283 (-0.165)
    Player: 44.46% (G:7.48% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 55.54% (G:16.00% B:0.51%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.297..-0.268) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) 13/11(2) eq:-0.298 (-0.180)
    Player: 42.51% (G:7.98% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 57.49% (G:12.61% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.284) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Are you trying to prime yourself playing 22(2) and stopping there after the opponent has made his nine point?

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)