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  • Backgame cube (for money)

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 23 07:50:49 2023
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jun 23 12:02:13 2023
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 12:50:53 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ND/T
    I'll hold this one because I don't see many big market losers.
    The opponent has excellent timing.
    I think that little is lost by waiting until we've improved our structure
    by clearing one or two more points.
    Of course, the 1-2 backgame is notoriously weak because many numbers
    that would normally be awkward for us, against other backgames, are numbers that we can't play.
    But the 1-2 isn't bad enough for us to turn the cube right away.
    Also the opponent might be able to get a better backgame by springing
    a deucepoint checker in the hope of forcing us to blot on the deuce.
    I don't know whether the 1-2 backgame player should try to break the
    deuce point.

    Who knows good strategy re springing from the deuce while playing a 1-2 backgame?
    Tim knows.
    Stick knows.
    Adam Tansley knows.
    Raccoon knows.
    Bradley Sherman knows.
    Wally knows.
    Blue Dice knows.

    Hellooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
    It's hot in here.

    Can any of y'all help me?

    Thank You.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jun 23 18:55:30 2023
    On 6/23/2023 7:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     |    O        O    |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |                  |   | O  O  O  O       |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  |   | 6                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                  |   | X                |
     |                X |   | X  X  X  X  O  O |
     | O        X     X |   | X  X  X  X  O  O |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 83  O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
    clear in front of the anchors. With five points to clear, that would
    imply a hold. Maybe because it's both not good enough and also too
    good. Hard to say, but I'll hold here.

    With 80 pips of timing and a solid board O should be able to take this
    one. Note X's stripped and stacked structure and the bad 64 roll.

    ND/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sat Jun 24 08:02:08 2023
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 6/23/2023 7:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
    clear in front of the anchors.
    ...
    Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form: "dictum"
    not "dicta".
    Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Sat Jun 24 08:00:23 2023
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 6/23/2023 7:50 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
    clear in front of the anchors. With five points to clear, that would
    imply a hold. Maybe because it's both not good enough and also too
    good. Hard to say, but I'll hold here.

    With 80 pips of timing and a solid board O should be able to take this
    one. Note X's stripped and stacked structure and the bad 64 roll.

    Yes, that's my play too. And some extra remarks:
    54 is just as bad as 64.
    Most rolls leave 54/64 as anti-jokers for our next roll.
    So the immediate and near-immediate probability of leaving the double
    shot is nearly 1 - 8/9 * 8/9 = 17/81 = 21%. Of course we need to hit after this
    happens so this is about a 10% combined parlay.
    So we're doing better than drinking a can of Budweiser but worse than
    a slice of mature cheddar with a Prosecco.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Jun 25 09:09:26 2023
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    O's timing might not look that bad, but one needs a lot of timing
    to play a 12-backgame. O's main hope here is for X to roll big
    right away. XG says that if X rolls something like 51, then he
    loses his market. Given that, it makes sense to double now.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.91% (G:30.82% B:4.12%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.09% (G:1.52% B:0.05%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:30.49% B:4.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:1.54% B:0.06%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.836 (-0.105)
    Double/Take: +0.941
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.825..+0.847)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.920..+0.961)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Jun 25 21:21:18 2023
    On 6/24/2023 11:02 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:

    The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
    clear in front of the anchors.

    Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form: "dictum" not "dicta".
    Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.

    Latin grammar is not my strong point, so mutatis mutandis.
    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Mon Jun 26 07:34:03 2023
    On 6/25/2023 9:21 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 6/24/2023 11:02 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 11:55:32 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:

    The standard dicta is to cube a backgame when you have three points to
    clear in front of the anchors.

    Since there's only one principle there, we need the singular form:
    "dictum"
    not "dicta".
    Remember to take your Latin books with you on your sailing trips.

    Latin grammar is not my strong point, so mutatis mutandis.

    Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod
    tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jun 28 13:39:55 2023
    On Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 9:09:31 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    O's timing might not look that bad, but one needs a lot of timing
    to play a 12-backgame. O's main hope here is for X to roll big
    right away. XG says that if X rolls something like 51, then he
    loses his market. Given that, it makes sense to double now.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.91% (G:30.82% B:4.12%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.09% (G:1.52% B:0.05%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:30.49% B:4.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:1.54% B:0.06%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.836 (-0.105)
    Double/Take: +0.941
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.825..+0.847)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.920..+0.961)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    This is a much bigger take than 3 ply/XGR would suggest.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Jun 30 02:32:05 2023
    On Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 9:39:57 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 9:09:31 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    O's timing might not look that bad, but one needs a lot of timing
    to play a 12-backgame. O's main hope here is for X to roll big
    right away. XG says that if X rolls something like 51, then he
    loses his market. Given that, it makes sense to double now.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.91% (G:30.82% B:4.12%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.09% (G:1.52% B:0.05%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:30.49% B:4.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:1.54% B:0.06%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.836 (-0.105)
    Double/Take: +0.941
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.059)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.825..+0.847)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.920..+0.961)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    This is a much bigger take than 3 ply/XGR would suggest.

    This is music for my banana yoghurt.
    Although ND/T is (of course) wrong,
    since we now know that the take is huge, perhaps the ND/T
    can be downgraded from felony status to a misdemeanour?

    Or is that too much to hope for?

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Jun 30 08:29:36 2023
    On 6/30/2023 5:32 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 9:39:57 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is a much bigger take than 3 ply/XGR would suggest.

    This is music for my banana yoghurt.
    Although ND/T is (of course) wrong,
    since we now know that the take is huge, perhaps the ND/T
    can be downgraded from felony status to a misdemeanour?

    Or is that too much to hope for?

    Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
    0.94 take. I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
    post soon.

    How much are thinking when you say "misdemeanour"?

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 30 09:16:00 2023
    On 6/30/2023 8:29 AM, I wrote:
    Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
    0.94 take.  I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
    post soon.

    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.71% (G:30.74% B:4.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.29% (G:1.59% B:0.06%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:30.48% B:4.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:1.61% B:0.06%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.841 (-0.079)
    Double/Take: +0.920
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.080)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.835..+0.846)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.909..+0.931)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jun 30 07:08:33 2023
    On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 9:16:05 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 6/30/2023 8:29 AM, I wrote:
    Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
    0.94 take. I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
    post soon.
    XGID=-bbBBBFB-A--a-a--a-bbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | 6 |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X X X O O |
    | O X X | | X X X X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 83 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 64.71% (G:30.74% B:4.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.29% (G:1.59% B:0.06%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:30.48% B:4.11%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:1.61% B:0.06%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.841 (-0.079)
    Double/Take: +0.920
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.080)
    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.835..+0.846)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+0.909..+0.931)
    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    Sorry but my own rollout which is ++/++ gigantic has this being worth +0.890.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Jul 3 04:54:24 2023
    On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 1:29:39 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 6/30/2023 5:32 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 9:39:57 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    This is a much bigger take than 3 ply/XGR would suggest.

    This is music for my banana yoghurt.
    Although ND/T is (of course) wrong,
    since we now know that the take is huge, perhaps the ND/T
    can be downgraded from felony status to a misdemeanour?

    Or is that too much to hope for?
    Remember that for Stick, a 0.92 take is "much bigger" than a
    0.94 take. I'm doing an XGR+ rollout, whose results I hope to
    post soon.

    How much are thinking when you say "misdemeanour"?

    At my level, I would thinking I should be wary of checker plays that
    lose more than 0.05 equity and cube errors that lose more than 0.1 equity.

    So, in this context, if my hold is not as bad as a 0.1 error, I'm hoping that no mob of rgb paramilitaries will destroy my village.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Jul 8 08:20:02 2023
    On 6/30/2023 10:08 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
    Sorry but my own rollout which is ++/++ gigantic has this being worth +0.890.

    I did my own XGR++/Gigantic rollout but was unable to reproduce
    the result that Stick reported. More details here:

    https://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=211003

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)