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  • 7-away/5-away cube

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Jun 21 08:18:11 2023
    XGID=aBB-B-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Jun 23 07:49:57 2023
    XGID=aBB-B-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    I passed this cube, knowing that at this score, X should be quick
    to pass gammonish cubes. But XG says that it's an easy take for O.
    On the other hand, see the variant, where X has a stronger board.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 63.28% (G:25.59% B:0.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.72% (G:6.53% B:0.43%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.42% (G:25.78% B:0.18%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.58% (G:6.49% B:0.45%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.664 (-0.154)
    Double/Take: +0.818
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.182)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.654..+0.674)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.804..+0.832)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BBB-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.19% (G:27.01% B:0.28%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.81% (G:5.72% B:0.24%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.34% (G:27.44% B:0.31%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.66% (G:5.88% B:0.31%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.766 (-0.226)
    Double/Take: +0.992
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.008)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.756..+0.776)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.978..+1.007)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Jun 23 18:40:32 2023
    On 6/21/2023 8:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBB-B-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
     +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X           O  O |   | O     O        X |
     | X           O  O |   | O     O          |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     | X           O    |   | O                |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     |                  | O |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |   | X                |
     | O                |   | X     X     X  X |
     | O           X    |   | X     X     X  X |
     +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 116  O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    O's takepoint is fairly normal here so I'll treat it like unlimited w/o
    Jacoby. Any dance would seem to be a market loser and there are 16 of
    them so shipping it should be sound. X has work to do extracting the
    runner so I don't think it is TG. I'll say take but I'm not sure, so
    that makes me think it must be a cube.

    D/T.

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Jun 28 08:27:56 2023
    On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 7:50:02 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=aBB-B-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 116 O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    I passed this cube, knowing that at this score, X should be quick
    to pass gammonish cubes. But XG says that it's an easy take for O.
    On the other hand, see the variant, where X has a stronger board.

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 63.28% (G:25.59% B:0.16%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.72% (G:6.53% B:0.43%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 63.42% (G:25.78% B:0.18%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 36.58% (G:6.49% B:0.45%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.664 (-0.154)
    Double/Take: +0.818
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.182)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.654..+0.674)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.804..+0.832)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=a-BBB-C-A---bD---dbd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
    Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O X |
    | X O O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 120 O: 129 X-O: 0-2/7
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 66.19% (G:27.01% B:0.28%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.81% (G:5.72% B:0.24%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 66.34% (G:27.44% B:0.31%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 33.66% (G:5.88% B:0.31%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.766 (-0.226)
    Double/Take: +0.992
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.008)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.756..+0.776)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.978..+1.007)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The gammon value is hardly elevated compared to money (and the opp's gv is also elevated almost the same though he obv wins far fewer g's) and the recube vig is close enough to normal for the 5a player that we should start with what we would do for money
    and adjust some from there. I snatch for money so I'd still easily take it here.

    Stick

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)