On Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 8:17:31 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-b--B-C-CAB-cB---e-e-B----:0:0:1:00:3:1:0:7:10
Score is X:3 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 157 X-O: 3-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
XG says that this is a borderline take/pass for money. If you're
trailing in the match score, doesn't that mean you have more leeway
for taking? Not necessarily. In gammonish positions, it is
dangerous for the trailer to take when the leader is 4-away,
especially if (as here) the gammons are mostly won by the leader.
I underestimated the gammon threat here because O has no blots and
has an anchor. But the 1pt anchor is not much of an anchor, and
can lose a gammon rather easily.
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.25% (G:21.75% B:1.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.75% (G:4.98% B:0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.36% (G:22.59% B:3.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.64% (G:5.31% B:0.42%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.914 (-0.086)
Double/Take: +1.182 (+0.182)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.904..+0.925)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+1.161..+1.203)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
-----
Money
-----
XGID=-b--B-C-CAB-cB---e-e-B----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.34% (G:21.54% B:1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.66% (G:5.04% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.29% (G:22.90% B:1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.71% (G:5.45% B:0.24%)
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.887 (-0.113)
Double/Take: +1.002 (+0.002)
Double/Pass: +1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.879..+0.896)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.987..+1.018)
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
If you're not going to stipulate which direction XG leans in close take/pass decisions I'd suggest putting which decision XG favors first. Normally I say something along the lines of "It's a borderline take/pass decision leaning towards a pass per XG"
or something similar. I'm also okay with saying either "it's a borderline take/pass decision" or "It's a borderline pass/take decision" with the former meaning XG leans to taking and the latter XG leans toward passing. This way at least I don't have to
guess so much what the writer's threshold is for 'borderline'. In this position for money XG has it as a pass by about .015.
Stick
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