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  • The Ancient Mariner would not double this position

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Mon Nov 1 13:09:37 2021
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
    10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Nov 3 10:29:30 2021
    On 11/1/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action


    I count 29 rolls that either make the full prime or cover the ace. (any
    3,6, or 44) If X rolls one of the other 7 rolls and O hits, O still
    needs a 6 to escape while X needs a five to enter. So call it about
    even if things go poorly for X. I don't see how O takes this and I
    don't see all that many gammons.

    But there might be enough gammons to take a shake. What are the market
    gainers? X rolls one of the seven non-covering rolls and O enters - That
    seems to give O a chance since X is favored to dance. To win a gammon, X
    has to cover, leave the ace slotted, have O hit it, have O leave a shot,
    hit the shot, and then bear off before O gets her runners home. A lot
    of ifs.

    So I'll cash this one. Might be

    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to ah....Clem on Wed Nov 3 09:09:13 2021
    On Wednesday, November 3, 2021 at 2:29:33 PM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
    On 11/1/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    I count 29 rolls that either make the full prime or cover the ace. (any
    3,6, or 44) If X rolls one of the other 7 rolls and O hits, O still
    needs a 6 to escape while X needs a five to enter. So call it about
    even if things go poorly for X. I don't see how O takes this and I
    don't see all that many gammons.

    But there might be enough gammons to take a shake. What are the market gainers? X rolls one of the seven non-covering rolls and O enters - That seems to give O a chance since X is favored to dance. To win a gammon, X
    has to cover, leave the ace slotted, have O hit it, have O leave a shot,
    hit the shot, and then bear off before O gets her runners home. A lot
    of ifs.

    So I'll cash this one. Might be

    I like your analysis.
    BTW, XG's pre-rollout analysis and XG's rollout disagree with each other.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Nov 3 23:52:01 2021
    On 11/1/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action

    It can't be too much of an error to cash this one because gammons are
    low, but the risk of taking a shake is also very low. Like Duke Orsino
    from "Twelfth Night," I would say, "Play on!"

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Nov 4 01:44:55 2021
    On Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 3:52:05 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/1/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    It can't be too much of an error to cash this one because gammons are
    low, but the risk of taking a shake is also very low. Like Duke Orsino
    from "Twelfth Night," I would say, "Play on!"

    I'll post the rollout when I get to my other computer.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Thu Nov 4 12:44:25 2021
    On Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 3:52:05 AM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
    On 11/1/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    Of course, the Ancient Mariner wouldn't double because the doubling
    cube was only introduced around the 1920's long after the time
    of Wordsworth and Coleridge.

    But would you double?

    XGID=aABBBBBA--A--A-----bAbcdc-:1:1:1:00:0:2:3:0:X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon 10

    Score is X:0 O:2. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O X O O O O |
    | | | O O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 91 O: 65 X-O: 0-2
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X on roll, cube action
    It can't be too much of an error to cash this one because gammons are
    low, but the risk of taking a shake is also very low. Like Duke Orsino
    from "Twelfth Night," I would say, "Play on!"

    Rollout is below.
    I'm not sure if 1.035 vindicates you or not.
    Is a .035 "much of an error" or not?

    Paul

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No redouble
    Player Winning Chances: 93.13% (G:9.88% B:0.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 6.87% (G:0.91% B:0.01%)
    Redouble/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 94.53% (G:8.42% B:0.23%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 5.47% (G:1.13% B:0.03%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.955, Double=+1.931

    Cubeful Equities:
    No redouble: +1.035
    Redouble/Take: +1.908 (+0.872)
    Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.035)

    Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.9%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+1.033..+1.038)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+1.902..+1.913)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 18 minutes 00 second

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Nov 5 09:25:24 2021
    On 11/4/2021 3:44 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    I'm not sure if 1.035 vindicates you or not.
    Is a .035 "much of an error" or not?

    I don't consider that to be much of an error for a play-on
    decision.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)