XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 6/11/2023 8:57 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 | X     O     O  O |   | O     O  O     X |
 | X              O |   | O     O  O     X |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   | O                |
 | X                |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X  X             |
 |                  |   | X  X             |
 | O              X |   | X  X     O  O  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 154  O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

I'll go with the (often incorrect) aphorism to "attack a single checker,
prime two" and simply make the bar and 10 points.

Instead of making the four point. Yes, this goes against what I just
wrote in another thread since O is off the ace point, but the bar point
is still doing a decent job of blocking and the midpoint is crying to be unstacked.

Is making the ace point while whacking two better? I don't think so
without any builders in sight, but won't be surprised if it's the bot move.

Tim, have you done a series on bar vs 4 point? BKS brought it up, and
it's worth a look if you have examples.




--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 6/11/2023 11:55 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

Tim, have you done a series on bar vs 4 point?  BKS brought it up, and
it's worth a look if you have examples.

I don't remember if I've done a series before. I certainly
have plenty of examples. I can post some soon.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, June 12, 2023 at 12:44:23 AM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 6/11/2023 11:55 AM, ah....Clem wrote:

Tim, have you done a series on bar vs 4 point? BKS brought it up, and it's worth a look if you have examples.

I don't remember if I've done a series before. I certainly
have plenty of examples. I can post some soon.

---
Tim Chow

I don't have high hopes of being right and I'm not sure whether I'm using
QF or not, but I'm actually making the 10 point and the ace point.
We may well get a shot on the next roll so we don't want a blot on our home board,
If we accept the need to avoid inner board blots (a doubtful assumption) then 13/10(2)
seems the natural follow-up.

7/1 13/10(2)

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE-a-abd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

XG says that the double hit is far better than all the alternatives.
But the decision is more subtle than the large equity difference might
suggest. A lot hinges on O's outfield blots, which X might be able to
attack successfully if O rolls poorly from the bar. If unmolested, O
has a lot of rolls that consolidate her position and lock in X's back
checkers even more securely. So the double hit should probably be
regarded as more of a tempo hit than a blitzing attempt per se.

In the variant, I have cleaned up O's position slightly and as you can
see, the rollout verdict is much closer. Any further cleaning up of
O's position, and XG says that the double hit is a huge blunder.

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 6/3* 5/2* eq:-0.381
Player: 40.50% (G:18.32% B:2.48%)
Opponent: 59.50% (G:28.04% B:3.63%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.400..-0.362) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 7/1 6/3* eq:-0.541 (-0.161)
Player: 37.10% (G:14.36% B:1.42%)
Opponent: 62.90% (G:26.65% B:2.99%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.559..-0.524) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/10 7/1 5/2* eq:-0.551 (-0.170)
Player: 36.34% (G:13.85% B:1.30%)
Opponent: 63.66% (G:25.17% B:2.46%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.562..-0.539) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/4 7/4 eq:-0.564 (-0.183)
Player: 35.64% (G:11.48% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 64.36% (G:22.55% B:1.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.579..-0.550) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 13/7 eq:-0.629 (-0.248)
Player: 34.35% (G:10.56% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 65.65% (G:22.27% B:1.89%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.646..-0.612) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Aaa-CCA----aE--a-cd-bb-B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 7/1 6/3* 5/2* eq:-0.538
Player: 37.57% (G:15.04% B:1.31%)
Opponent: 62.43% (G:29.24% B:4.00%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.527) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 7/4 eq:-0.583 (-0.044)
Player: 34.78% (G:11.60% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:22.55% B:1.96%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.594..-0.572) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 13/10(2) 13/7 eq:-0.638 (-0.099)
Player: 34.18% (G:10.80% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 65.82% (G:22.21% B:1.91%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.656..-0.619) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/12/2023 1:37 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I don't have high hopes of being right and I'm not sure whether I'm using
QF or not, but I'm actually making the 10 point and the ace point.

XG thinks that play is in triple-whopper-plus-cheese territory.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 2:19:01 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 6/12/2023 1:37 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

I don't have high hopes of being right and I'm not sure whether I'm using QF or not, but I'm actually making the 10 point and the ace point.

XG thinks that play is in triple-whopper-plus-cheese territory.

That's ok. It's better than triple-whopper plus a sneeze.
Sneezing while eating a hamburger makes a terrible mess.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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