XGID=---aBBBAB--A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 6/7/2023 9:26 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---aBBBAB--A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |       X          |   | O  O  X  X  O  O |  |                  |   | O  O  X  X  O  O |  |                  |   | O  O             |  |                  |   | O  O             |  |                  |   | 6                |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  | +---+
 |             X    |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
 |    X        X  X |   | X  X  X  O       | +---+  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 165  O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

Making the bar point seems obvious. Why wouldn't it be? With about 80
pips of timing X has a viable backgame, and trapping O behind a solid
five prime might make the crunch happen sooner, although all those
spares on the 5 and 6 points make me think it won't happen very soon.

Hitting may be the bot move since if hit back it just improves the
timing, and if she enters on the 1 or 2 we have a chance to trap her
behind a five prime where she's not at the edge.

I'll stick with making the bar point but won't be surprised if 11/3* is
the bot choice.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=---aBBBAB--A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

A two-way game is nice because you can be bold and/or aggressive without
too much fear of your opponent's good rolls, because you have something
to fall back on. I reasoned that I could attack without too much fear
of getting hit back. But the more pedestrian play of making the five-
prime has too much going for it. If O escapes with a 6, we still have
chances of hitting the blot, and then our five-prime will be formidable.

This could count as an anti-QF problem, perhaps.

1. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:+0.430
Player: 61.63% (G:10.87% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 38.37% (G:18.78% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.419..+0.440) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/3* eq:+0.193 (-0.237)
Player: 56.01% (G:9.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:27.19% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.182..+0.204) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aBCCA---A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:-0.014
Player: 47.62% (G:6.45% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 52.38% (G:23.82% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.024..-0.005) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/10 6/3* eq:-0.044 (-0.030)
Player: 49.17% (G:7.10% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 50.83% (G:30.96% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.055..-0.034) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/3* eq:-0.077 (-0.063)
Player: 47.85% (G:6.17% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 52.15% (G:29.86% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.089..-0.066) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, June 9, 2023 at 10:02:41 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=---aBBBAB--A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 165 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53
A two-way game is nice because you can be bold and/or aggressive without
too much fear of your opponent's good rolls, because you have something
to fall back on. I reasoned that I could attack without too much fear
of getting hit back. But the more pedestrian play of making the five-
prime has too much going for it. If O escapes with a 6, we still have chances of hitting the blot, and then our five-prime will be formidable.

This could count as an anti-QF problem, perhaps.

1. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:+0.430
Player: 61.63% (G:10.87% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 38.37% (G:18.78% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.419..+0.440) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/3* eq:+0.193 (-0.237)
Player: 56.01% (G:9.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:27.19% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.182..+0.204) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---aBCCA---A---A---fdBBbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O X X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 84 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53
1. Rollout¹ 15/7 eq:-0.014
Player: 47.62% (G:6.45% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 52.38% (G:23.82% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.024..-0.005) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 15/10 6/3* eq:-0.044 (-0.030)
Player: 49.17% (G:7.10% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 50.83% (G:30.96% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.055..-0.034) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/3* eq:-0.077 (-0.063)
Player: 47.85% (G:6.17% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 52.15% (G:29.86% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.089..-0.066) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

One needs to pay attention to how the opp's rolls play after you make the 5 prime. There are no shortage of horror to near horror numbers for him where we'll be able to cube next turn by sitting on our hands and letting him roll and throw spares to his
deep points even though we have little material up front we want to attack with when he's at the edge of our prime.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)