• Which point to make?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 22 09:22:55 2023
    XGID=-bB-CCB-CAA--aa--abbbb-b--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed May 24 08:36:40 2023
    XGID=-bB-CCB-CAA--aa--abbbb-b--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 21

    XG thinks that O's board is too strong to allow even 4 hitting rolls.

    1. Rollout¹ 10/9 8/6 eq:+0.796
    Player: 86.16% (G:12.02% B:0.43%)
    Opponent: 13.84% (G:0.42% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.791..+0.800) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 5/3 4/3 eq:+0.709 (-0.087)
    Player: 82.82% (G:12.64% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 17.18% (G:1.49% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.704..+0.714) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.676 (-0.120)
    Player: 81.47% (G:10.83% B:0.35%)
    Opponent: 18.53% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.671..+0.681) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bB-CCB-CAA--aa--abcba-b--:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O O | | O O O O | +---+
    | O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X X X O |
    | X X X | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 86 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 5/3 4/3 eq:+0.819
    Player: 85.08% (G:16.78% B:1.52%)
    Opponent: 14.92% (G:1.17% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.814..+0.823) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/9 8/6 eq:+0.803 (-0.016)
    Player: 86.11% (G:12.87% B:0.55%)
    Opponent: 13.89% (G:0.48% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.798..+0.808) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)