XGID=-BCaaGB---b---b------b-dcA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, May 20, 2023 at 9:50:10 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-BCaaGB---b---b------b-dcA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

In answer to your question I would say no, definitely not.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-BCaaGB---b---b------b-dcA:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 51

This may look superficially similar to the last problem, but as Stick
said, the motivation to hit here isn't to gain a tempo. O has only a
single direct shot either way. Rather, X's position is strong enough
that he can try hitting to win a gammon. The rollout below might
suggest that hitting is clear, but see the variant. The tradeoff
between wins and gammons is not so easy to assess OTB.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 5/4* eq:+0.716
Player: 76.49% (G:28.59% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 23.51% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.709..+0.723) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/19 eq:+0.647 (-0.069)
Player: 78.72% (G:15.76% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 21.28% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.641..+0.653) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/20 2/1 eq:+0.578 (-0.138)
Player: 76.41% (G:14.39% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 23.59% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.572..+0.584) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BCaaGB---b---b------b-dcA:1:-1:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O | +---+
| O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ Bar/19 5/4* eq:+0.730
Player: 77.01% (G:28.91% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 22.99% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.725..+0.735) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/18 eq:+0.711 (-0.019)
Player: 80.67% (G:17.17% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 19.33% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.707..+0.716) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBABEC-B-a------------cj-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 74 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBABEC-B-a------------cj-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 74 O: 55 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 21

We should definitely hit here because O's board is so weak (and it's
not just "for tempo" since we could even win a gammon here if we manage
to hit a second checker after a blot-hitting contest). What surprised
me, though, was that XG recommended volunteering a double shot with
5/3 2/1*, rather than the prosaic 5/4 3/1*. But it makes sense if we
think about it. We'd rather make the better board, and getting hit is
not so bad because of O's weak board. And if we're not hit back, then
the upside of 5/3 2/1* is considerable.

1. Rollout¹ 5/3 2/1* eq:+0.866
Player: 85.89% (G:19.35% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 14.11% (G:1.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.861..+0.871) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/4 3/1* eq:+0.764 (-0.101)
Player: 83.67% (G:14.08% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 16.33% (G:0.70% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.760..+0.769) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 3/1* 2/1 eq:+0.690 (-0.176)
Player: 81.82% (G:11.22% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 18.18% (G:0.57% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.685..+0.694) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/7 3/1* eq:+0.667 (-0.199)
Player: 80.08% (G:13.16% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 19.92% (G:1.30% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.662..+0.671) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/7 5/3 eq:+0.660 (-0.206)
Player: 81.42% (G:9.56% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 18.58% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.656..+0.664) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/3 eq:+0.637 (-0.229)
Player: 81.58% (G:6.78% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 18.42% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.633..+0.641) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)