• Volunteer a shot, or dump?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat May 13 16:23:01 2023
    Stick solved this problem just from reading the subject line.

    XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-d-B-cb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 15 08:55:43 2023
    XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-d-B-cb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
    | | | O O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    Dumping looks pretty ugly, but O's position is inflexible and she
    might be leaving a shot next turn. In the variant below, O has a
    blot in her board, and 13/4 duplicates O's aces to hit and to cover.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.091
    Player: 52.90% (G:10.52% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 47.10% (G:7.63% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.099..-0.084) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:-0.154 (-0.063)
    Player: 51.04% (G:10.49% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 48.96% (G:9.32% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.162..-0.147) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.198 (-0.107)
    Player: 49.85% (G:8.69% B:0.21%)
    Opponent: 50.15% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.206..-0.191) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.201 (-0.109)
    Player: 48.98% (G:10.29% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 51.02% (G:8.11% B:0.22%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.208..-0.193) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:-0.233 (-0.142)
    Player: 48.07% (G:8.43% B:0.29%)
    Opponent: 51.93% (G:6.81% B:0.17%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.241..-0.226) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-daB-bb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X O O | +---+
    | X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X X | | X O X X |
    | O X X | | X O X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 125 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.211
    Player: 48.91% (G:9.40% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 51.09% (G:8.42% B:0.26%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.217..-0.205) - [84.5%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.215 (-0.004)
    Player: 48.94% (G:9.43% B:0.24%)
    Opponent: 51.06% (G:10.45% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.221..-0.210) - [15.5%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
    Search interval: Large

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)