• Proof that backgammon is a game of luck

    From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Sat Oct 30 03:16:30 2021
    We've all been there. You're at a chouette and you find the
    board saturated with alpha people (usually males) at your team,
    and some are giving supposedly "expert" analysis about why we need to
    hit, and others are arguing equally passionately that we don't hit to
    maintain the timing.

    And what is the real situation as determined by XG's analysis?
    It turns out that hitting and not hitting have the same equity,
    and whether you hit or not makes about as much difference as a
    new brand of peanut butter.
    To hit or not to hit? Either decision is right, and your backgammon
    skill is about as relevant as your boast that you can irritate your
    parents by juggling with three oranges that you've taken from their
    fruit bowl.

    Paul

    XGID=----CCBAa---bB--bbbccBB---:1:1:1:52:0:0:3X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
    :0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | X O O O | | O O X X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | O | | X X X | | 2 |
    | O O X | | X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 158 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 52

    1. 4-ply 7/2 5/3 eq:-0.568
    Player: 23.83% (G:2.55% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 76.17% (G:15.44% B:0.32%)

    2. 4-ply 13/8* 5/3 eq:-0.568
    Player: 26.91% (G:4.76% B:0.16%)
    Opponent: 73.09% (G:25.09% B:0.85%)

    3. 4-ply 7/2 4/2 eq:-0.570 (-0.002)
    Player: 23.35% (G:2.65% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 76.65% (G:14.66% B:0.29%)

    4. 4-ply 13/11 13/8* eq:-0.570 (-0.003)
    Player: 25.11% (G:4.45% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 74.89% (G:20.50% B:0.62%)

    5. 3-ply 13/8* 8/6 eq:-0.579 (-0.012)
    Player: 24.68% (G:4.22% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 75.32% (G:19.74% B:0.61%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)