• Stumped

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Fri May 12 06:27:44 2023
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O in the
    event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds




    ¹ 646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 643 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri May 12 13:11:48 2023
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:27:46 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O in
    the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds


    I think I know the answer to this one, but there are
    stronger players and analysts on a few nearby planets,
    so I may well be corrected.
    First of all, your play is not a worse idea than using a
    Cadbury's Creme Egg to make an omelette -- 0.08 errors
    in this type of position can well be quite subtle.

    I think the loss in equity is readily explained by the way your jokers
    are so much worse, with no compensating factor.
    The correct play gives pick-and-point (I'm not sure whether this is
    standard terminology) jokers of 31/41/51/61.

    These seem much better than your corresponding jokers of 33/43/53/63,
    plus the fact that your corresponding jokers occur 1/36 less often.

    If you have the acepoint made, you'd rather keep it company with the 3 point than the 2 point.
    Preserving 2's might also be a factor but I think this aspect of the play is a (slightly) lesser scandal than Watergate, and that the main reason is what I say it is.

    Note also that the difference between the two sets of jokers is often preserved on future rolls.

    Not such a massive blunder, though.

    Paul

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri May 12 13:13:20 2023
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:27:46 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O in
    the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds




    ¹ 646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 643 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    Turn the cube.

    It's about how your board is often constructed over the next rolls. By that I mean do you want your hit and cover numbers/your doubles to make the 3pt leaving the 4pt and 2pt open or do you want them to make the ace point leaving the 4pt and 3pt open.
    Also more numbers can do this if the blot is closer to all your other checkers.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri May 12 13:52:19 2023
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:13:21 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:27:46 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O in
    the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds




    ¹ 646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 643 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    Turn the cube.

    It's about how your board is often constructed over the next rolls. By that I mean do you want your hit and cover numbers/your doubles to make the 3pt leaving the 4pt and 2pt open or do you want them to make the ace point leaving the 4pt and 3pt open.
    Also more numbers can do this if the blot is closer to all your other checkers.

    Stick

    This is exactly the same point I made.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sat May 13 06:03:46 2023
    On Saturday, May 13, 2023 at 2:00:48 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 4:52:20 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:13:21 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:27:46 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O
    in the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds




    ¹ 646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 643 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    Turn the cube.

    It's about how your board is often constructed over the next rolls. By that I mean do you want your hit and cover numbers/your doubles to make the 3pt leaving the 4pt and 2pt open or do you want them to make the ace point leaving the 4pt and 3pt
    open. Also more numbers can do this if the blot is closer to all your other checkers.

    Stick
    This is exactly the same point I made.

    Paul
    I think it was synchronicity, judging by the time stamps.

    Yes, I totally overlooked the time stamps despite referring to the concept in an earlier post.
    Stick has offered (and maybe still does offer) paid tuition in backgammon so I'm sure he
    can explain these things better than I can. For some reason, I missed the "hit and cover"
    phrase and chose "pick and point" which is far less standard.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sat May 13 06:00:47 2023
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 4:52:20 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:13:21 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:27:46 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O
    in the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.
    Bob

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O O O O |
    | O | | O O O O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X X X |
    | X X X X | | X X O X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 98 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    Player: 67.89% (G:2.14% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 32.11% (G:3.75% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.559..+0.580) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 32.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    Player: 66.48% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 33.52% (G:3.29% B:0.05%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.516..+0.543) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 25.3 seconds

    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)
    Player: 64.84% (G:2.31% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 35.16% (G:4.31% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.476..+0.501) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 31.3 seconds




    ¹ 646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 643 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    Turn the cube.

    It's about how your board is often constructed over the next rolls. By that I mean do you want your hit and cover numbers/your doubles to make the 3pt leaving the 4pt and 2pt open or do you want them to make the ace point leaving the 4pt and 3pt open.
    Also more numbers can do this if the blot is closer to all your other checkers.

    Stick
    This is exactly the same point I made.

    Paul
    I think it was synchronicity, judging by the time stamps.
    Thanks to you both. Makes sense and I was definitely overlooking the point. Next time something of the same vein comes along, there's a slightly lesser chance of my eating a creme egg omelet.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sat May 13 09:57:40 2023
    On 5/12/2023 9:27 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    I'm trying to understand why in the below position, where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such a poor play. Is it related to bear off efficiency, to some need to preserve playable 2's behind O's blot, or something about containment of O in
    the event of a hit? There must be something pretty routine here that I'm oblivious to.

    Usually, a blot on the 1pt is harder to cover than a blot on the 2pt.
    If you're ultimately aiming for a position with no blots then it makes
    sense to leave yourself with an easier task than a harder task.

    In specific situations, of course, it might be easier to cover a blot
    on the 1pt than a blot on the 2pt, but this doesn't seem to be one of
    those exceptional situations.

    Also if you make the 1pt then you can't prime your opponent; that
    consideration comes into play sometimes, but not here really.
    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MK@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue May 16 03:32:14 2023
    On May 13, 2023 at 7:59:56 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

    Usually, a blot on the 1pt is harder to cover than....

    This is a combined response to what Paul, Stick
    and you have said about 3/1 2/1 vs 3/2 3/1. You
    all are somewhat right in your arguments but all
    of you three are also wrong about what the right
    play is because you all focus on 3/1 2/1 being
    the best play just because the bots say so. See
    my response to Zimmer on this. I hope that you
    all will eventually appreciate what I am doing for
    your and for gamblegammon's sake, even though
    I neither care so much about any of you mentally
    ill gamblers nor about your gamblegammon bots.

    MK

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MK@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Tue May 16 03:17:13 2023
    On May 12, 2023 at 7:27:46 AM UTC-6, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

    I'm trying to understand why in the below position,
    where 3/1 2/1 is the right play, why 3/2 3/1 is such
    a poor play.....

    XGID=--ABaBBBBBB--a--a-bbbbbb--:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 3/1 2/1 eq:+0.569
    2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/5 eq:+0.530 (-0.040)
    3. Rollout² 3/2 3/1 eq:+0.489 (-0.081)

    3/2 3/1 is indeed a poor play but you must be given
    credit for questioning why 3/1 2/1 is the right play,
    because it isn't and hence your being stumped...

    I'm kind of stumped also because I would've played
    7/6 7/5 but Noo-Bg ranks 9/8 9/7 as better at times.

    GNUbg ID: tm0TAQSabdsAAA:cAkFAAAAAAAA

    Cubeful 4-ply hint
    3/1 2/1 +0.518
    9/8 9/7 +0.497 (-0.021)
    3/2 3/1 +0.412 (-0.107)
    7/6 7/5 +0.407 (-0.111)

    What's very interesting is that in "standard", (biased),
    rollouts, 3/1 2/1 comes up as best, but 9/8 9/7 and
    7/6 7/5 alternate ranks in cubeful, cubeless rollouts
    (until you go down to 0-ply in my trials but that may
    be due to the sequence of dice rolls which may end
    up differently, i.e. in line with higher ply rollouts, with
    different sequences of dice rolls, but I don't put much
    importance on this anyway).

    Cubeful 3-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.562
    9/8 9/7 +0.522 (-0.040)
    7/6 7/5 +0.505 (-0.057)
    3/2 3/1 +0.483 (-0.079)

    Cubeless 3-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.345
    7/6 7/5 +0.317 (-0.028)
    9/8 9/7 +0.300 (-0.045)
    3/2 3/1 +0.285 (-0.060)

    Cubeful 2-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.572
    9/8 9/7 +0.526 (-0.046)
    7/6 7/5 +0.497 (-0.075)
    3/2 3/1 +0.486 (-0.086)

    Ccubeless 2-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.348
    7/6 7/5 +0.319 (-0.029)
    9/8 9/7 +0.303 (-0.045)
    3/2 3/1 +0.286 (-0.062)

    Cubeful 1-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.546
    9/8 9/7 +0.511 (-0.035)
    7/6 7/5 +0.501 (-0.045)
    3/2 3/1 +0.475 (-0.071)

    Cubeless 1-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.340
    7/6 7/5 +0.314 (-0.026)
    9/8 9/7 +0.294 (-0.046)
    3/2 3/1 +0.282 (-0.058)

    Cubeful 0-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.503
    7/6 7/5 +0.487 (-0.016)
    9/8 9/7 +0.456 (-0.047)
    3/2 3/1 +0.362 (-0.141)

    Cubeless 0-ply 1296 trials
    3/1 2/1 +0.324
    7/6 7/5 +0.301 (-0.023)
    9/8 9/7 +0.277 (-0.047)
    3/2 3/1 +0.269 (-0.055)

    Now, when we do some "clinical rollouts", i.e with
    almost random checker/cube decisions, even ten
    times more trials than usual, i.e. 129,600, these are
    the results that we get:

    Cubeful 0-ply, max cube+checker noise12960 trials
    9/8 9/7 -0.316
    7/6 7/5 -0.433 (-0.117)
    3/1 2/1 -0.483 (-0.167)
    3/2 3/1 -0.536 (-0.220)

    Cubeless 0-ply, max cube+checker noise 12960 trials
    9/8 9/7 -0.349
    7/6 7/5 -0.492 (-0.143)
    3/1 2/1 -0.566 (-0.217)
    3/2 3/1 -0.608 (-0.259)

    Cubeful 0-ply, max cube+checker noise129600 trials
    9/8 9/7 -0.296
    7/6 7/5 -0.423 (-0.127)
    3/1 2/1 -0.501 (-0.205)
    3/2 3/1 -0.516 (-0.220)

    Even while playing gamblegammon, my backgammon
    trained brain first considers the cubeless play, thus
    correctly decides that 7/6 7/5 is better than 3/1 2/1
    and 3/2 3/1 but I have no idea why the bots says that
    9/8 9/7 is better than 7/6 7/5.

    I am stumped... :(

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 16 05:16:36 2023
    On Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:32:15 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 13, 2023 at 7:59:56 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

    Usually, a blot on the 1pt is harder to cover than....

    This is a combined response to what Paul, Stick
    and you have said about 3/1 2/1 vs 3/2 3/1. You
    all are somewhat right in your arguments but all
    of you three are also wrong about what the right
    play is because you all focus on 3/1 2/1 being
    the best play just because the bots say so.
    ...

    But it isn't "just because the bots say so".
    The "just" is wrong.
    It's "because the bots say so and the world's best
    bg players are bots."

    I remember a time when the best bots were abysmally
    bad players -- far worse than any competent human.
    At that time, no one would argue for a play on the basis
    of a bot's verdict.

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed May 17 00:51:36 2023
    On May 16, 2023 at 6:16:37 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:32:15 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:

    ... you three are also wrong about what the right
    play is because you all focus on 3/1 2/1 being
    the best play just because the bots say so.

    It's "because the bots say so and the world's best
    bg players are bots."

    I understand that you are not objecting to what I said
    but to how I said it. Feel free to clarify if not so.

    I didn't mean that you all have no reasons to believe
    what the bots say. However your trust in the bots is
    unfounded, undeserved. There has never been any
    empirical evidence establishing bots as the world's
    best bg players.

    Was there ever any prizes offered for humans to beat
    the bots, substantial enough sums of money to make
    it worthwhile for gamblegammon giants like mockey,
    mickey, sticky, etc. to give it a go, (at the risk of being
    ridiculed by their peers for daring to try and to fail)?

    I hope I haven't missed out of any such opportunity to
    not win money but to show that the past/present bots
    aren't necessarily the world's best bg players.

    In fact, I believe that some players like me who deviate
    from the bot play are most likely to beat the bots than
    all the gambler giants who strive to play like the bots.

    But all that said and saved aside, what do you think of
    the results of my *cubeful* "clinical rollout", (i.e. almost
    random checher+cube play) of 129 thousand 6 hundred
    trials?

    Do you still "believe" that the bots' top pick 3/1 2/1 is
    the correct play or do you accept that the 9/8 9/7 of
    my rollout is the correct play?

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Wed May 17 03:58:02 2023
    On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:51:37 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 16, 2023 at 6:16:37 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 11:32:15 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    ... you three are also wrong about what the right
    play is because you all focus on 3/1 2/1 being
    the best play just because the bots say so.
    It's "because the bots say so and the world's best
    bg players are bots."
    I understand that you are not objecting to what I said
    but to how I said it. Feel free to clarify if not so.

    I didn't mean that you all have no reasons to believe
    what the bots say. However your trust in the bots is
    unfounded, undeserved. There has never been any
    empirical evidence establishing bots as the world's
    best bg players.
    ...

    I don't have time to substantiate this fully, but there is strong empirical evidence that bots are the world's best bg players.
    The evidence is that bots generally beat humans in actual play, whether money or match.

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed May 17 17:51:23 2023
    On May 17, 2023 at 4:58:04 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:51:37 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:

    I didn't mean that you all have no reasons to believe
    what the bots say. However your trust in the bots is
    unfounded, undeserved. There has never been any
    empirical evidence establishing bots as the world's
    best bg players.

    I don't have time to substantiate this fully,

    "Partially" would be good enough to start with
    if you could spare time for that much.

    but there is strong empirical evidence that
    bots are the world's best bg players.

    Where? What kind of evidence? Could you or
    anyone else provide at least some pointers to
    where I can look for any "evidence" at all..??

    I'm also very disappointed that you and others
    shy away from commenting on whether 3/1 2/1
    or 9/8 9/7 is the correct play. :(

    And I'm even more disappointed nobody offered
    any opinions on why Noo-BG finds 9/8 9/7 better
    than 7/6 7/5 (regardless of 3/1 2/1 vs 3/2 3/1).

    You can't possible be all stumped also, can you..?

    MK

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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to All on Thu May 18 00:55:01 2023
    On Thursday, May 18, 2023 at 1:51:25 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:
    On May 17, 2023 at 4:58:04 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:51:37 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:

    I didn't mean that you all have no reasons to believe
    what the bots say. However your trust in the bots is
    unfounded, undeserved. There has never been any
    empirical evidence establishing bots as the world's
    best bg players.
    I don't have time to substantiate this fully,
    "Partially" would be good enough to start with
    if you could spare time for that much.

    I can't spare time for that much.

    Paul

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  • From MK@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu May 18 01:09:45 2023
    On May 18, 2023 at 1:55:02 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    On May 18, 2023 at 1:51:25 AM UTC+1, MK wrote:

    On May 17, 2023 at 4:58:04 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

    I don't have time to substantiate this fully,

    "Partially" would be good enough to start with
    if you could spare time for that much.

    I can't spare time for that much.

    I understand... :) Fully... ;)

    MK

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