XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot
vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot
vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot
vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a stacked
midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:18:30 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a stacked

midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Thanks, Stick for your interesting response.
Clearly you understood correctly that the original position was a clear pass. So, presumably, without the rollout, you would also have known that the variant was not a clear pass?

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, May 13, 2023 at 6:22:37 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:18:30 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a

stacked midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Thanks, Stick for your interesting response.
Clearly you understood correctly that the original position was a clear pass.
So, presumably, without the rollout, you would also have known that the variant was not a clear pass?

Paul

With the variant I'd have tilted my head sideways and thought it was close. Luckily that's all I generally need to know and other factors make the decision quite clear.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 12:02:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Saturday, May 13, 2023 at 6:22:37 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:18:30 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG,
it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a

stacked midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Thanks, Stick for your interesting response.
Clearly you understood correctly that the original position was a clear pass.
So, presumably, without the rollout, you would also have known that the variant was not a clear pass?

Paul

With the variant I'd have tilted my head sideways and thought it was close. Luckily that's all I generally need to know and other factors make the decision quite clear.

Having watched a lot of the world's best players on youtube, I don't think any human can do better than that.
With Tim's variantization, the best players would just have to take a 50/50 guess at the take/pass decision.
Playing against a fish, it's probably a practical pass for the expert because then you get to start a new game.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:37:53 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 12:02:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Saturday, May 13, 2023 at 6:22:37 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:18:30 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation
to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot
of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG, it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a

stacked midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Thanks, Stick for your interesting response.
Clearly you understood correctly that the original position was a clear pass.
So, presumably, without the rollout, you would also have known that the variant was not a clear pass?

Paul

With the variant I'd have tilted my head sideways and thought it was close. Luckily that's all I generally need to know and other factors make the decision quite clear.

Having watched a lot of the world's best players on youtube, I don't think any human can do better than that.
With Tim's variantization, the best players would just have to take a 50/50 guess at the take/pass decision.
Playing against a fish, it's probably a practical pass for the expert because then you get to start a new game.

Paul

Playing against a fish for money this is a take all day long. Playing against a fish in a match it's a pass all day long.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 10:59:33 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 5:37:53 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 12:02:07 AM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Saturday, May 13, 2023 at 6:22:37 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 9:18:30 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:59:19 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Friday, May 12, 2023 at 2:13:51 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-eD---b-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Being on the bar against a four-point board, with another blot vulnerable to being hit, is obviously not a pleasant situation to be in, but O has her 5pt made, which typically offers a lot of protection against an early blitz. However, according to XG, it's not enough for a take. But see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.18% (G:44.83% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.82% (G:8.25% B:0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.38% (G:45.90% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.62% (G:8.39% B:0.55%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.787 (-0.213)
Double/Take: +1.125 (+0.125)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.775..+0.798)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.106..+1.144)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aBB--BB-A-a-dD---c-db---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O O X | | X X X X | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.15% (G:42.33% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.85% (G:8.87% B:0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.46% (G:43.52% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.54% (G:9.03% B:0.60%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.728 (-0.248)
Double/Take: +0.976
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.719..+0.737)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.958..+0.995)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Wow, Tim!

This is by far the best exhibition of variantization I've ever seen in my 42 years of backgammon!!
Clearly, you're a world-class variantizer even though not a world-class player.

Here, the original/variantization difference seems subtle indeed -- just a matter of a transfer from 13 to 8.
It is clear that the variantization is much better for the underdog than the original.

However, I think this kind of exposes Stick's response as being inadequate because Stick's pigs
argument would seem to work to give a (slightly) bad pass in your variantization.

So "seems pretty clear to [Stick]" seems wrong because, if it were indeed "pretty clear", the variantization
would be a pass, too.

And indeed I don't think 0.125 cube errors are all that rare among world-class players.
So I'd be surprised if this position is so clear to Giants.

Paul

The variant is a huge change in the position whether it seems subtle or not. I'll acknowledge that my quippy 30 second replies to things like this certainly don't cover all the details but anyone who has studied early game blitzes knows that a

stacked midpoint + stripped 8pt when facing a cube is wildly different than the more even distribution as Tim shows here. It's 5 pips, it's another checker in the zone, it's miles and miles of flexibility/counter play.

Thanks, Stick for your interesting response.
Clearly you understood correctly that the original position was a clear pass.
So, presumably, without the rollout, you would also have known that the variant was not a clear pass?

Paul

With the variant I'd have tilted my head sideways and thought it was close. Luckily that's all I generally need to know and other factors make the decision quite clear.

Having watched a lot of the world's best players on youtube, I don't think any human can do better than that.
With Tim's variantization, the best players would just have to take a 50/50 guess at the take/pass decision.
Playing against a fish, it's probably a practical pass for the expert because then you get to start a new game.

Paul

Playing against a fish for money this is a take all day long. Playing against a fish in a match it's a pass all day long.

Yes, that's correct. In fact, Lionel Richie recently made a new hit -- "All Day Long" where he says the same thing.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=b-a-BAC-BA--fD---c-c-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| 6 | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 193 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Nine checkers in the zone and a two-point board often indicate a weak
blitz, but X has a massive lead in the pip count and O has no structure.
This is a huge pass. Unfortunately for me, this is one of those
positions where I didn't think too long before cashing. I've given a
variant below which XG thinks is on the borderline between D and TG.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.85% (G:42.92% B:2.78%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.15% (G:4.29% B:0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.20% (G:43.14% B:2.88%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.80% (G:4.31% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.076
Double/Take: +1.531 (+0.455)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.076)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 14.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+1.065..+1.087)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+1.508..+1.555)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=b-a-BAC-BA--dDb--c-c-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| O | O | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 189 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.35% (G:39.37% B:2.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.65% (G:5.07% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.41% (G:40.50% B:2.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.59% (G:5.27% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.001
Double/Take: +1.325 (+0.324)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.001)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.4%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.992..+1.011)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.309..+1.342)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)