XGID=-a--CaE-B---bCBb-c-bbb----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, May 11, 2023 at 2:45:44 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:

XGID=-a--CaE-B---bCBb-c-bbb----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

Yes, I'll hit loose. If I counted correctly, this gives the opponent
a 5/9 chance of return hitting which is more than we wanted.
But are the alternatives any better?

Making the 2 point seems a clear candidate. Very superficially, it
seems much safer as the blot is within direct range of only one of
the opponent's checkers. However, when we count the opponent's
return shots after we make the 2 point, we get a whopping 17.
The extra 1/12 shot jeopardy for the hit-loose play seems easily worth
it, when compared to making the 2 point, bearing in mind the situations
where the gamble works.

Another idea is 14/8 and something else. This gives the opponent a 5/12
chance to hit immediately, with no real upside.

Hitting loose seems clear. We have to bear in mind that being hit isn't particularly horrific. If (or rather when) Tim variantizes to give the opponent
a stronger board, hitting loose will seem less clever than playing Rg6 in
the last rapid game of a world championship chess match.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-a--CaE-B---bCBb-c-bbb----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

X has escaped his back checkers and has the weaker board, so he wants to
play safe. The trouble is, there is no totally safe play. I opted for
the loose hit, but XG says that's a whopper. In Variant 1, I put a blot
on O's 3pt, and in Variant 2, I moved a spare from X's 6pt to his
midpoint. Neither of these changes induced XG to hit, but the
combination of the two did (Variant 3).

1. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.097
Player: 52.88% (G:12.23% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 47.12% (G:11.13% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.084..+0.111) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.039 (-0.058)
Player: 51.21% (G:12.76% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 48.79% (G:12.36% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.027..+0.051) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/2 eq:-0.012 (-0.110)
Player: 50.57% (G:10.81% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 49.43% (G:13.12% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.026..+0.001) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.021 (-0.118)
Player: 49.52% (G:15.75% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 50.48% (G:16.06% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.033..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a--CaE-B---bCBb-b-bbba---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.110
Player: 53.42% (G:10.98% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 46.58% (G:12.03% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.098..+0.122) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:+0.063 (-0.047)
Player: 51.81% (G:16.16% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 48.19% (G:16.71% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.049..+0.077) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.047 (-0.063)
Player: 51.49% (G:11.86% B:0.62%)
Opponent: 48.51% (G:13.53% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.036..+0.058) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a--CaD-B---bDBb-c-bbb----:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.016
Player: 51.17% (G:10.32% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 48.83% (G:12.42% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.004..+0.027) - [87.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.005 (-0.010)
Player: 51.20% (G:9.13% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 48.80% (G:12.33% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.008..+0.018) - [12.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:-0.007 (-0.023)
Player: 50.69% (G:13.32% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 49.31% (G:16.49% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.019..+0.005) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 3
---------

XGID=-a--CaD-B---bDBb-b-bbba---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O O O |
| X X O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 13/5* eq:+0.078
Player: 52.53% (G:14.94% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 47.47% (G:17.05% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.066..+0.091) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.008 (-0.071)
Player: 51.05% (G:9.35% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 48.95% (G:13.99% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.004..+0.020) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.007 (-0.072)
Player: 50.84% (G:9.80% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 49.16% (G:14.08% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.004..+0.018) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)