• Hit or not?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Aug 14 20:48:31 2021
    XGID=----aaE-D---cE---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10 abd2cb37e08a0f0299361da2adfc11d62b861577a53abac0193

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Aug 17 09:01:52 2021
    XGID=----aaE-D---cE---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10 abd2cb37e08a0f0299361da2adfc11d62b861577a53abac0193

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    With an equal race and a slightly weaker board, I did not think
    that hitting (and risking getting that checker sent back) made sense,
    but XG insists that it's best. Note that 22/16 6/4* duplicates 4's.

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/4* eq:-0.221
    Player: 45.91% (G:6.36% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 54.09% (G:15.35% B:0.46%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.234..-0.209) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/6 eq:-0.290 (-0.069)
    Player: 43.74% (G:5.15% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 56.26% (G:14.03% B:0.36%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.301..-0.280) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/14 eq:-0.311 (-0.090)
    Player: 42.81% (G:4.00% B:0.14%)
    Opponent: 57.19% (G:11.28% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.322..-0.301) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=----aaE-E---cD---d-db-A---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | X | | X |
    | X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 144 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 62

    1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/4* eq:-0.127
    Player: 48.16% (G:7.51% B:0.31%)
    Opponent: 51.84% (G:14.64% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.136..-0.118) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/6 eq:-0.147 (-0.020)
    Player: 47.38% (G:5.66% B:0.23%)
    Opponent: 52.62% (G:11.96% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.155..-0.140) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout² 22/14 eq:-0.178 (-0.051)
    Player: 46.63% (G:4.59% B:0.19%)
    Opponent: 53.37% (G:10.27% B:0.27%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.188..-0.167) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to All on Thu Dec 8 11:03:47 2022
    XGID=----AbD-C-BadC--Ad-bbA----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Fri Dec 9 08:50:42 2022
    On 12/8/2022 11:03 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=----AbD-C-BadC--Ad-bbA----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    I wouldn't hit here. Magriel's criteria point to a safe play,
    and X is also well ahead in the pip count. I also don't see a
    need for a tempo hit. 16/13 for me.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to ah...Clem on Fri Dec 9 07:40:24 2022
    On Thursday, December 8, 2022 at 11:03:45 AM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:
    XGID=----AbD-C-BadC--Ad-bbA----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    With the duping of fours we hit.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Nasti Chestikov@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Fri Dec 9 09:39:46 2022
    On Friday, 9 December 2022 at 15:40:25 UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

    With the duping of fours we hit.

    Stick

    You seem to have a thing with double fours? You've posted twice here in the last twenty four hours about how great they are (you've deleted one post but it's archived, sorry about that).

    What's your "thing" with double fours?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Nasti Chestikov on Fri Dec 9 12:45:41 2022
    On Friday, December 9, 2022 at 12:39:48 PM UTC-5, Nasti Chestikov wrote:
    On Friday, 9 December 2022 at 15:40:25 UTC, Stick Rice wrote:

    With the duping of fours we hit.

    Stick
    You seem to have a thing with double fours? You've posted twice here in the last twenty four hours about how great they are (you've deleted one post but it's archived, sorry about that).

    What's your "thing" with double fours?

    Dobbeltfirere!

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From ah....Clem@21:1/5 to All on Sat Dec 10 22:15:19 2022
    Like Tim, I applied the usual safe v bold criteria to arrive at 16/13.
    But XG likes the hit and lift so much better that the safe play is a
    blunder.

    Is it due to fours being duped three ways? Seems so. Move the straggler
    back a point and XGR++ has it about even. (see variant)


    XGID=----AbD-C-BadC--Ad-bbA----:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 13/11* 11/10 eq:+0.010
    Player: 51.15% (G:9.07% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 48.85% (G:12.12% B:0.47%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.005..+0.026) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 16/13 eq:-0.075 (-0.085)
    Player: 49.37% (G:8.19% B:0.28%)
    Opponent: 50.63% (G:12.60% B:0.34%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.090..-0.060) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 10 minutes 54 seconds

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


    ////////////////////
    //variant
    ////////////////////

    XGID=----AbD-C-BadC--Ad-bb-A---:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | |
    | O | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    | O O X X | | X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 149 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 21

    1. XG Roller++ 16/13 eq:-0.074
    Player: 49.02% (G:7.68% B:0.25%)
    Opponent: 50.98% (G:11.55% B:0.30%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/11* 11/10 eq:-0.079 (-0.004)
    Player: 49.16% (G:9.60% B:0.32%)
    Opponent: 50.84% (G:13.55% B:0.52%)


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


    --
    Ah....Clem
    The future is fun, the future is fair.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Feb 3 18:11:03 2024
    XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---A-bbc--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Feb 6 09:38:34 2024
    XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---A-bbc--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X | | O O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    I tried hitting here, but XG hates my play. If O's board weren't so
    strong it might be a different story (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 17/8 eq:+0.634
    Player: 76.64% (G:21.31% B:1.61%)
    Opponent: 23.36% (G:4.30% B:0.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.627..+0.642) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.523 (-0.112)
    Player: 71.02% (G:28.78% B:2.92%)
    Opponent: 28.98% (G:9.59% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.514..+0.531) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 17/11 9/6 eq:+0.513 (-0.122)
    Player: 73.12% (G:20.83% B:1.58%)
    Opponent: 26.88% (G:7.08% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.505..+0.520) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-bBBaBBB-B--cB---Abbba--b-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X X O | | O O O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | | | | +---+
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O X X | | X X X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 107 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 63

    1. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:+0.761
    Player: 75.58% (G:35.75% B:4.72%)
    Opponent: 24.42% (G:5.99% B:0.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.751..+0.771) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 17/8 eq:+0.741 (-0.019)
    Player: 79.15% (G:24.55% B:2.27%)
    Opponent: 20.85% (G:3.05% B:0.10%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.735..+0.748) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 17/11 7/4* eq:+0.734 (-0.027)
    Player: 74.75% (G:36.02% B:4.71%)
    Opponent: 25.25% (G:6.63% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.726..+0.743) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)