On Friday, May 5, 2023 at 12:29:19 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=aB-BCCC----------------db-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 53 O: 35 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44
I was rather surprised that XG thought that keeping a five-point board
was so much better than ripping off an extra two checkers. I'm not sure
I have any good techniques for making this type of decision in general.
1. Rollout¹ 6/2(3) 4/Off eq:+0.263
Player: 52.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 47.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.258..+0.268) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 5/1 4/Off(3) eq:+0.177 (-0.085)
Player: 50.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 49.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.171..+0.183) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
It's two extra checkers off immediately but overall not only does it leave a lot more shots immediately, it's such a slow bearoff that those 'extra two checkers off' come back to not being cumulatively more.
Stick
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