XGID=-CBDaBB-----A-A----abacdc-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10I think the split is for more desperate situations. Here you have a fair shot at a win going down the more conservative route given the race and likelihood that O will leave you a direct shot on the way out. If not, she'll increase her wastage before the
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
---
Tim Chow
On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:57:37 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:the bear off. Hold onto that five point board for the possibility of the direct shot. Owning the cube is advantageous here, and I'm not sure it's useful in the splitting scenario.
XGID=-CBDaBB-----A-A----abacdc-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
---I think the split is for more desperate situations. Here you have a fair shot at a win going down the more conservative route given the race and likelihood that O will leave you a direct shot on the way out. If not, she'll increase her wastage before
Tim Chow
Bob
XGID=-CBDaBB-----A-A----abacdc-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
This problem falls in the category of, hitting loose while containing
a single straggler. In positions like this one, the following crude heuristic is often surprisingly accurate:
1. Assume that if you hit and are missed, you win, and that if you hit
and are hit back you lose.
2. Assume that if you don't hit, it's a pure race.
In this position, the heuristic would suggest that hitting with 6/5 6/4* wins 5/9 of the time,
On Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 10:44:47 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-CBDaBB-----A-A----abacdc-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
This problem falls in the category of, hitting loose while containing
a single straggler. In positions like this one, the following crude heuristic is often surprisingly accurate:
1. Assume that if you hit and are missed, you win, and that if you hit
and are hit back you lose.
2. Assume that if you don't hit, it's a pure race.
In this position, the heuristic would suggest that hitting with 6/5 6/4* wins 5/9 of the time,Where does the 5/9 come from?
Paul
On Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 10:44:47 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
1. Assume that if you hit and are missed, you win, and that if you hit
and are hit back you lose.
2. Assume that if you don't hit, it's a pure race.
In this position, the heuristic would suggest that hitting with 6/5 6/4*
wins 5/9 of the time,
Where does the 5/9 come from?
On 5/4/2023 7:12 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 10:44:47 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
1. Assume that if you hit and are missed, you win, and that if you hit
and are hit back you lose.
2. Assume that if you don't hit, it's a pure race.
In this position, the heuristic would suggest that hitting with 6/5 6/4* >> wins 5/9 of the time,
Where does the 5/9 come from?Sorry, that was a miscalculation.
---
Tim Chow
Also, the heuristic clearly doesn't work here, whether it leads to the correct action or not.
We can't assume that if we hit and are hit back we lose. Because after we're hit back,
we get yet another shot at the opponent's blotty inner board.
On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 12:32:34 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:the bear off. Hold onto that five point board for the possibility of the direct shot. Owning the cube is advantageous here, and I'm not sure it's useful in the splitting scenario.
On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:57:37 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=-CBDaBB-----A-A----abacdc-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 67 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
---I think the split is for more desperate situations. Here you have a fair shot at a win going down the more conservative route given the race and likelihood that O will leave you a direct shot on the way out. If not, she'll increase her wastage before
Tim Chow
After play B? You can start with a simple question like "Am I favorite after this play?" And then hone in from there.BobIs that your dmp play? And nobody ever does it for some reason, probably bc they're not good at it and don't think they can be I guess, but problems like this you should at least estimate, even if it's a wild estimate, how often do we win after play A?
StickI was not thinking in terms of DMP. I thought to have a less volatile situation, where X doesn't create blots in his board, would favor the cube owner in terms of efficient cubes in a race. Evidently if that is true, it isn't sufficient to make a non-
I was not thinking in terms of DMP. I thought to have a less volatile situation, where X doesn't create blots in his board, would favor the cube owner in terms of efficient cubes in a race. Evidently if that is true, it isn't sufficient to make a non-hitting play correct, probably because if there is not contact, X is too far behind in the race to have much recube vig.
On 5/6/2023 11:33 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:hitting play correct, probably because if there is not contact, X is too far behind in the race to have much recube vig.
I was not thinking in terms of DMP. I thought to have a less volatile situation, where X doesn't create blots in his board, would favor the cube owner in terms of efficient cubes in a race. Evidently if that is true, it isn't sufficient to make a non-
I agree with Stick that, at least in *this type of position*
(late-stage containment, loose hit versus safe play), estimating
winning chances is the way to go. Recube vig will then be taken
into account implicitly when you analyze the "safe play" half of
the equation using racing formulas.
Gammons can also come into play in the calculation, but only as
a second-order correction to the basic estimate of winning chances.
---
Tim Chow
into account implicitly when you analyze the "safe play" half of
the equation using racing formulas. "
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