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  • Anchor or PoH?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon May 1 09:39:54 2023
    XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon May 1 08:19:18 2023
    On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 2:39:57 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow
    PoH for sure, but it's hard for me to justify it.
    It's not as if anchoring is as senseless as
    Norman Mailer.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon May 1 18:48:40 2023
    On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:39:57 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    ---
    Tim Chow
    Anchoring and PoH are close. To me, what breaks the tie is taking away a good 6 from O. So make the anchor. Then I'd hit as it unstacks the 6 point and doesn't strip the midpoint.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed May 3 08:38:39 2023
    XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 53

    O has 9 checkers in the zone and has the better board (even after we
    PoH, if we choose to do so), so she does have an attacking threat,
    which incentivizes anchoring. The 3pt evidently isn't valuable enough
    to justify the PoH play. See the variant, where the choice is between anchoring and pointing on the 4pt.

    1. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/10 eq:+0.137
    Player: 54.02% (G:10.38% B:0.30%)
    Opponent: 45.98% (G:9.81% B:0.35%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.125..+0.149) - [94.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 23/18 6/3* eq:+0.122 (-0.015)
    Player: 52.94% (G:12.13% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 47.06% (G:10.87% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.109..+0.136) - [6.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 8/3* 6/3 eq:+0.040 (-0.097)
    Player: 51.11% (G:14.81% B:0.67%)
    Opponent: 48.89% (G:14.47% B:0.61%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.025..+0.055) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a--a-E-CB--dC---cAdb-A---:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O X |
    | X O | | O O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 42

    1. XG Roller++ 8/4* 6/4 eq:+0.171
    Player: 54.19% (G:15.33% B:0.76%)
    Opponent: 45.81% (G:12.84% B:0.47%)

    2. XG Roller++ 22/18 13/11 eq:+0.132 (-0.039)
    Player: 53.88% (G:9.60% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 46.12% (G:8.86% B:0.31%)

    3. XG Roller++ 22/18 6/4* eq:+0.102 (-0.069)
    Player: 52.90% (G:11.58% B:0.37%)
    Opponent: 47.10% (G:10.94% B:0.35%)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From MK@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri May 5 03:10:07 2023
    On May 1, 2023 at 7:39:57 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a-a--E-CB--dC---cAdb--A--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
    X to play 53

    23/10, 13/18

    MK

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)