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  • Something's got to give

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Apr 30 08:26:47 2023
    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---b-ccbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue May 2 08:55:50 2023
    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---b-ccbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    I thought that this would be an opportune moment to run off the 3pt
    anchor, but XG hates that play. Evidently, O has too much ammunition
    to attack with. Move O's spare from her 5pt to her 8pt and XG says
    that 22/16 7/6 is a much more viable candidate (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.375
    Player: 59.12% (G:17.83% B:0.85%)
    Opponent: 40.88% (G:10.72% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.357..+0.393) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/7 eq:+0.339 (-0.036)
    Player: 58.60% (G:16.95% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 41.40% (G:10.59% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.326..+0.352) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.229 (-0.146)
    Player: 57.83% (G:16.12% B:0.83%)
    Opponent: 42.17% (G:17.99% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.216..+0.241) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---c-cbbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.383
    Player: 58.87% (G:18.90% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 41.13% (G:10.72% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.373..+0.394) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.359 (-0.024)
    Player: 60.63% (G:16.46% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 39.37% (G:14.66% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.350..+0.369) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue May 2 09:08:26 2023
    On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:55:52 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---b-ccbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    I thought that this would be an opportune moment to run off the 3pt
    anchor, but XG hates that play. Evidently, O has too much ammunition
    to attack with. Move O's spare from her 5pt to her 8pt and XG says
    that 22/16 7/6 is a much more viable candidate (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.375
    Player: 59.12% (G:17.83% B:0.85%)
    Opponent: 40.88% (G:10.72% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.357..+0.393) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/7 eq:+0.339 (-0.036)
    Player: 58.60% (G:16.95% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 41.40% (G:10.59% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.326..+0.352) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.229 (-0.146)
    Player: 57.83% (G:16.12% B:0.83%)
    Opponent: 42.17% (G:17.99% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.216..+0.241) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---c-cbbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.383
    Player: 58.87% (G:18.90% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 41.13% (G:10.72% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.373..+0.394) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.359 (-0.024)
    Player: 60.63% (G:16.46% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 39.37% (G:14.66% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.350..+0.369) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    One principal that Mochy applies to breaking the butterfly anchor is to avoid a situation where both the runner and the laggard are susceptible to attack. This is not typical of his reference position for that sort of circumstance, but it does come close.

    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Tue May 2 14:31:21 2023
    On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 12:08:27 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Tuesday, May 2, 2023 at 8:55:52 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---b-ccbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    I thought that this would be an opportune moment to run off the 3pt anchor, but XG hates that play. Evidently, O has too much ammunition
    to attack with. Move O's spare from her 5pt to her 8pt and XG says
    that 22/16 7/6 is a much more viable candidate (see variant).

    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.375
    Player: 59.12% (G:17.83% B:0.85%)
    Opponent: 40.88% (G:10.72% B:0.39%)
    Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.357..+0.393) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/7 eq:+0.339 (-0.036)
    Player: 58.60% (G:16.95% B:0.71%)
    Opponent: 41.40% (G:10.59% B:0.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.326..+0.352) - [0.1%]

    3. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.229 (-0.146)
    Player: 57.83% (G:16.12% B:0.83%)
    Opponent: 42.17% (G:17.99% B:0.41%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.216..+0.241) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--a-BBBCBc---B---c-cbbBa--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O X O |
    | X O | | O O O X |
    | O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | O X | | |
    | O X X | | X X X |
    | O X X | | X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 137 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    1. Rollout¹ 13/6 eq:+0.383
    Player: 58.87% (G:18.90% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 41.13% (G:10.72% B:0.42%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.373..+0.394) - [99.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/16 7/6 eq:+0.359 (-0.024)
    Player: 60.63% (G:16.46% B:0.74%)
    Opponent: 39.37% (G:14.66% B:0.40%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.350..+0.369) - [0.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow
    One principal that Mochy applies to breaking the butterfly anchor is to avoid a situation where both the runner and the laggard are susceptible to attack. This is not typical of his reference position for that sort of circumstance, but it does come
    close.
    Bob

    The butterfly anchor lol

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Nov 22 10:01:16 2023
    XGID=-DBCBB------a-----Badcacb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 71 O: 62 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Nov 24 16:23:46 2023
    XGID=-DBCBB------a-----Badcacb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 71 O: 62 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    O's blotty board and our racing deficit point to a play that maximizes
    contact.

    1. Rollout¹ 18/17 3/1 eq:-0.454
    Player: 25.20% (G:2.20% B:0.03%)
    Opponent: 74.80% (G:4.48% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.457..-0.452) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 11.0 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 18/16 3/2 eq:-0.516 (-0.062)
    Player: 22.78% (G:1.63% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 77.22% (G:5.25% B:0.06%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.520..-0.513) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 10.6 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/16 eq:-0.519 (-0.064)
    Player: 22.15% (G:2.16% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 77.85% (G:3.62% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.521..-0.516) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 9.5 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/3 eq:-0.536 (-0.082)
    Player: 20.19% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 79.81% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.539..-0.533) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 6.7 seconds

    5. Rollout¹ 18/15 eq:-0.552 (-0.098)
    Player: 21.09% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
    Opponent: 78.91% (G:4.07% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.555..-0.549) - [0.0%]

    6. Rollout¹ 5/2 eq:-0.561 (-0.107)
    Player: 19.31% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 80.69% (G:1.05% B:0.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.565..-0.558) - [0.0%]

    7. Rollout¹ 4/3 4/2 eq:-0.564 (-0.110)
    Player: 18.90% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 81.10% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.567..-0.561) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 1
    ---------

    XGID=-DBCBB------a-----B-ddacb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 71 O: 60 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 5/4 5/3 eq:-0.569
    Player: 18.74% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 81.26% (G:0.47% B:0.00%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.572..-0.566) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 18/17 3/1 eq:-0.593 (-0.024)
    Player: 19.54% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
    Opponent: 80.46% (G:5.54% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.596..-0.590) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---------
    Variant 2
    ---------

    XGID=-DBBCB------a-----Badcacb-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X | | O O O O O O |
    | X | | O O O O |
    | | | O O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | | | X X | +---+
    | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
    | O | | X X X X X | +---+
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 72 O: 62 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, X own cube
    X to play 21

    1. Rollout¹ 18/17 4/2 eq:-0.454
    Player: 25.21% (G:2.47% B:0.04%)
    Opponent: 74.79% (G:4.46% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.457..-0.451) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 4/1 eq:-0.499 (-0.046)
    Player: 21.49% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
    Opponent: 78.51% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.502..-0.497) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 18/16 4/3 eq:-0.524 (-0.070)
    Player: 22.53% (G:1.60% B:0.03%)
    Opponent: 77.47% (G:5.27% B:0.07%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.527..-0.521) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/16 eq:-0.526 (-0.073)
    Player: 21.87% (G:2.18% B:0.05%)
    Opponent: 78.13% (G:3.66% B:0.04%)
    Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.529..-0.523) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)