On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:38:24 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=----b-E-Da--dD---b-dbB----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33
In the first couple of rolls of the game, typical uses of a 33 are to advance the anchor from the 24pt, to unstack the midpoint, or to make
the 5pt and/or 3pt. So here we might look at unstacking some of our
three tall points. Always make the 5pt, right? However, X is now considerably ahead in the pip count, while O has made an advanced
anchor, so running is the main game plan. Advancing to the 15pt also
puts some pressure on O's blot.
1. Rollout¹ 21/15(2) eq:+0.318
Player: 59.01% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 41.00% (G:6.57% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.305..+0.330) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.251 (-0.067)
Player: 57.16% (G:8.14% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 42.84% (G:7.19% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.241..+0.261) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.183 (-0.134)
Player: 55.47% (G:8.33% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 44.53% (G:9.57% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.170..+0.196) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.133 (-0.185)
Player: 53.66% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 46.34% (G:7.97% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.121..+0.145) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.122 (-0.195)
Player: 53.73% (G:7.62% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 46.27% (G:9.10% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.111..+0.134) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.110 (-0.208)
Player: 53.35% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 46.65% (G:9.53% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.098..+0.122) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
Playing 15 against 1 (or two or three obv) is almost always the right recipe regardless of what the race is.
Stick
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