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  • Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Fri Apr 28 08:17:52 2023
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Fri Apr 28 10:06:41 2023
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if X
    had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sat Apr 29 13:52:27 2023
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow

    You gave it away with your title. Not on the bar, not a double by far. Very reference like.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sat Apr 29 17:46:15 2023
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if
    X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
    Bob

    So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
    I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sun Apr 30 08:25:41 2023
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    A four-point board is a big asset in the opening when the opponent
    has no structure. But without anything else, it's not enough for
    a double. Any improvement and it gets close (see variant).

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 58.68% (G:25.08% B:0.49%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.32% (G:9.79% B:0.45%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 58.85% (G:24.64% B:0.42%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 41.15% (G:9.72% B:0.45%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.454
    Double/Take: +0.335 (-0.119)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.546)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.9%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.440..+0.468)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.314..+0.357)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-BaBaBB----AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O X | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 61.49% (G:28.31% B:0.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.51% (G:9.05% B:0.41%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 61.64% (G:29.13% B:0.50%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 38.36% (G:9.17% B:0.44%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.574
    Double/Take: +0.563 (-0.011)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.426)

    Best Cube action: No double / Take
    Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

    Rollout:
    2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.565..+0.582)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.549..+0.576)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Sun Apr 30 12:27:28 2023
    On Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 8:46:16 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass
    if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
    Bob
    So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
    I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.

    Paul
    I thought it was a double. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to my own words: "But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll...". Not enough market losing sequences.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sun Apr 30 14:31:45 2023
    On Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 8:27:30 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 8:46:16 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | X O | | O |
    | X | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X O X O X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    ---
    Tim Chow
    X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a
    pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
    Bob
    So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
    I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.

    Paul
    I thought it was a double. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to my own words
    ...

    On the contrary. I think everyone should ignore their own words. That way, you're covered
    whatever happens. If your initial words were right, you've said something wise. OTOH, if
    your initial words were wrong, you were wise to ignore them.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)