On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 10:26:05 AM UTC+1,
peps...@gmail.com wrote:
On Tuesday, August 17, 2021 at 4:15:59 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
On 8/14/2021 4:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
I know the position isn't TG but the question is.
The TG question is: "Am I too good at math(s) to waste so much
time playing backgammon?"
Paul
XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
I tend not to (re)double these sorts of positions because it
seems that X has too much work to do---he has to get three
checkers over O's prime, and if he doesn't cover his blot on
the 2pt, it might be four checkers behind the prime. Plus,
5's are duplicated to cover and jump out. But O does have a
blot on her 1pt and a good percentage of X's wins are gammons.
If X rolls something reasonable and O dances again then I think
X loses his market. RD/T.
It's actually a clear hold according to the rollout. This surprised me (and probably you, too).
I'll post the rollout as soon as I get to my computer with XG.
Paul
Before I came to the US to start grad studies in math(s) in 1989, I had never heard of the phrase
"don't make a liar out of me." In fact, when I first heard it, I thought the guy meant "Don't call me a liar."
and it seemed utterly bizarre because why would I call him that?
Anyway, the below rollout certainly does make a liar out of me since I didn't post the rollout
"as soon as I [got] to my computer with XG" but many hours afterwards.
The moral of the story? My rollouts are not always predictable. The way to get predictability
is to eat a tuna and mayo baguette. Then you can be sure it tastes of tuna and mayo.
Paul
XGID=a-ABBBBB----cA----bcbcC-a-:1:1:1:00:6:20:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
Score is X:6 O:20. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O X |
| | | O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 119 X-O: 6-20
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action
Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 60.48% (G:22.19% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.52% (G:11.92% B:0.40%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.79% (G:22.26% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.21% (G:11.97% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.313, Double=+0.639
Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.560
Redouble/Take: +0.346 (-0.213)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.440)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.6%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.547..+0.573)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+0.322..+0.370)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 36 minutes 38 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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