The second best move is a double whopper. Nevertheless, I don't consider it a straight forward problem.
Bob

XGID=-----aDCC---bB---c-c-bbbC-:0:0:1:44:4:0:1:5:10

Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 106 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 44

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 4/22/2023 8:04 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The second best move is a double whopper. Nevertheless, I don't consider it a straight forward problem.
Bob

XGID=-----aDCC---bB---c-c-bbbC-:0:0:1:44:4:0:1:5:10

Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 106 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 44

PoH is an obvious candidate, but I think it disconnects our
position too much. Even if things go our way for a couple of
turns, we have way too much work to do to extract our back
checkers. I think we have to play 24/20(2). After that, we'd
still like to contain O's straggler if we can, so I'd follow
up with 13/9(2).

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, April 22, 2023 at 8:04:56 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The second best move is a double whopper. Nevertheless, I don't consider it a straight forward problem.
Bob

XGID=-----aDCC---bB---c-c-bbbC-:0:0:1:44:4:0:1:5:10

Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 106 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 44

The PoH play comes out well ahead of the alternatives that move the back checkers. I think it may be that X can withstand holding the back checkers for this sequence because O's position is not quite set up to produce a strong prime. With the inner board
less developed and more outfield builders for O, coming out to the 5 point is "half as bad" an error, for what that is worth. See the variant.

Bob

XGID=-----aDCC---bB---c-c-bbbC-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 13/5*(2) eq:-0.516
Player: 39.48% (G:6.55% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 60.52% (G:21.39% B:2.11%)

2. XG Roller++ 24/20(3) 8/4 eq:-0.726 (-0.209)
Player: 30.68% (G:3.59% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 69.32% (G:12.15% B:0.20%)

3. XG Roller++ 24/20(3) 7/3 eq:-0.780 (-0.263)
Player: 29.71% (G:3.50% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 70.29% (G:12.30% B:0.20%)

4. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq:-0.812 (-0.296)
Player: 31.21% (G:4.29% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 68.79% (G:17.24% B:0.27%) ---------------------------------------------------------
variant
--------------------------------------------------------- XGID=-----aDCC---bB--bc-c-bb-C-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. XG Roller++ 13/5*(2) eq:-0.538
Player: 37.42% (G:8.39% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 62.58% (G:20.12% B:1.83%)

2. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/5* eq:-0.634 (-0.096)
Player: 35.74% (G:6.19% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 64.26% (G:21.03% B:0.90%)

3. XG Roller++ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq:-0.638 (-0.100)
Player: 33.69% (G:5.34% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 66.31% (G:12.76% B:0.35%)

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

Here's a rollout of the position with the score changed to gammon save.

XGID=-----aDCC---bB---c-c-bbbC-:0:0:1:44:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 106 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 24/20(3) 8/4 eq:-0.595
Player: 28.62% (G:3.11% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 71.38% (G:8.39% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.600..-0.591) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/5*(2) eq:-0.609 (-0.014)
Player: 38.33% (G:5.97% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 61.67% (G:18.78% B:5.70%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.616..-0.602) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/20(3) 7/3 eq:-0.616 (-0.021)
Player: 28.25% (G:3.00% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 71.75% (G:9.05% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.621..-0.611) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/20(3) 6/2 eq:-0.656 (-0.060)
Player: 26.24% (G:3.08% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 73.76% (G:9.03% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.660..-0.651) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/20(2) 13/9(2) eq:-0.696 (-0.100)
Player: 28.93% (G:2.98% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 71.07% (G:13.71% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.701..-0.690) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On April 22, 2023 at 6:04:56 AM UTC-6, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The second best move

Oh, what wouldn't I give just to hear you say
"opprobrium" with your mouth full eating a
rooster... ;)

MK

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)