XGID=-aBBCBB---A-----bb-bdC-bb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

XGID=-aBBCBB---A-----bb-bdC-bb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

Hitting is certainly very tempting here, but the question is whether
X urgently needs to escape a checker so that he isn't forced to crunch
his board next time with a bad roll. This type of decision can be
very treacherous, with tons of equity at stake. The fact that X's
outfield coverage is pretty good after 21/13 helps tip the balance
in favor of running instead of hitting.

Note that it's not just a matter of having only 3's and 6's to escape
the back checkers. In Variant 2 below, X has 3's, 4's and 6's to
escape, and yet hitting is in the neighborhood of a triple whopper.

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.556
Player: 63.42% (G:9.33% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 36.58% (G:6.35% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.549..+0.564) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18 10/5 eq:+0.308 (-0.248)
Player: 54.04% (G:9.66% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 45.96% (G:7.02% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.300..+0.316) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5 4/1* eq:+0.242 (-0.314)
Player: 53.43% (G:10.44% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 46.57% (G:11.06% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.234..+0.250) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aBBCBB---A-----bb-bdBAbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 10/5 4/1* eq:+0.343
Player: 58.34% (G:12.24% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 41.66% (G:14.03% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.335..+0.351) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/2 eq:+0.065 (-0.278)
Player: 45.63% (G:10.56% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 54.37% (G:10.45% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.058..+0.073) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/1* 4/1 eq:-0.038 (-0.381)
Player: 47.81% (G:8.58% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 52.19% (G:23.59% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.046..-0.031) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:-0.213 (-0.556)
Player: 43.28% (G:11.97% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 56.72% (G:31.92% B:1.79%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.221..-0.205) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-aBBCBB---A-----bb-bdABbb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.598
Player: 64.18% (G:13.26% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 35.82% (G:6.82% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.591..+0.605) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18 10/5 eq:+0.333 (-0.265)
Player: 54.95% (G:11.67% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 45.05% (G:7.18% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.326..+0.340) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/5 4/1* eq:+0.311 (-0.287)
Player: 57.05% (G:11.97% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 42.95% (G:14.12% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.302..+0.321) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 3
---------

XGID=-aBBCBB---------bbAbdC-bb-:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O X O O |
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 21/13 eq:+0.375
Player: 57.66% (G:12.32% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 42.34% (G:12.07% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.368..+0.383) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13 4/1* eq:+0.333 (-0.042)
Player: 57.48% (G:12.31% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 42.52% (G:15.13% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.324..+0.342) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)