• Blitz vs. prime, sort of

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Apr 3 10:02:58 2023
    XGID=aABBCCA-----c---abbdb-AAA-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X | +---+
    | O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Apr 5 08:44:25 2023
    XGID=aABBCCA-----c---abbdb-AAA-:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X | +---+
    | O O | | O O | | 2 |
    | | | O | +---+
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 41

    After covering the 1pt, I thought it was more important to step
    up to the edge of the prime than to lift the blot on the 6pt, but
    XG disagrees. Stepping up gives us a good 5, but 6/5 (in addition
    to cleaning up the blot, obviously) kills 5's. But see the variant,
    where XG steps up.

    1. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:-0.232
    Player: 45.06% (G:23.90% B:0.11%)
    Opponent: 54.94% (G:12.56% B:0.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.244..-0.221) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:-0.302 (-0.069)
    Player: 42.05% (G:22.58% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 57.95% (G:15.07% B:0.84%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.312..-0.292) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 23/22 5/1 eq:-0.348 (-0.116)
    Player: 40.62% (G:21.32% B:0.10%)
    Opponent: 59.38% (G:14.44% B:0.55%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.358..-0.339) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=aABBCCA-----c--a-bbdb-AAA-:0:0:1:41:0:1:1:2:10

    Score is X:0 O:1 2 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O O | | O O X X X |
    | O O | | O O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | O | | X X |
    | O | | X X X X |
    | O | | X X X X X X |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 113 O: 138 X-O: 0-1/2 Crawford
    Cube: 1
    X to play 41

    1. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:+0.242
    Player: 41.43% (G:20.68% B:0.12%)
    Opponent: 58.57% (G:11.93% B:0.86%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.236..+0.248) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 6/1 eq:+0.191 (-0.051)
    Player: 40.94% (G:18.59% B:0.26%)
    Opponent: 59.06% (G:9.66% B:0.58%)
    Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.184..+0.197) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)