From
Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to
All on Mon Apr 3 10:27:10 2023
XGID=-a-a-BCBA---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
O rolled 42 to open the game, then X rolled 11, then O rolled
42 again, and now X has rolled 11 again. 42P-11N-42Z-11 (or
42P-11N-42S-11 for Convenience Clause fanatics).
Here I thought I should either hit, or play 24/23 8/5. I did not
seriously consider XG's play of simply advancing the anchor and
leaving a direct shot. I suppose that part of the point is that
playing 24/22(2) sometimes lets us hit back with sixes from the
bar if O hits us. If O's blot were on her 10pt rather than her 9pt
then XG still favors 24/22(2), but not by as large a margin (see
variant below).
1. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq:-0.028
Player: 49.36% (G:12.33% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 50.64% (G:13.03% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.044..-0.011) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/5 eq:-0.091 (-0.063)
Player: 48.20% (G:13.55% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 51.80% (G:17.11% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.107..-0.074) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.145 (-0.117)
Player: 47.13% (G:12.72% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 52.87% (G:17.84% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.159..-0.131) - [0.0%]
4. Rollout¹ 24/23 6/3* eq:-0.153 (-0.125)
Player: 47.89% (G:13.80% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 52.11% (G:20.40% B:1.66%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.168..-0.137) - [0.0%]
5. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/6 eq:-0.154 (-0.126)
Player: 46.15% (G:13.03% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 53.85% (G:15.67% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.170..-0.137) - [0.0%]
6. Rollout¹ 8/7 6/3* eq:-0.158 (-0.130)
Player: 47.04% (G:13.81% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 52.96% (G:18.33% B:1.23%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.173..-0.142) - [0.0%]
7. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/7 6/5 eq:-0.158 (-0.131)
Player: 46.93% (G:12.41% B:0.55%)
Opponent: 53.07% (G:17.89% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.174..-0.143) - [0.0%]
8. Rollout¹ 24/23(2) 8/7 6/5 eq:-0.168 (-0.140)
Player: 45.90% (G:12.55% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 54.10% (G:15.47% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.184..-0.153) - [0.0%]
9. Rollout¹ 24/23 24/22 8/7 eq:-0.170 (-0.142)
Player: 46.69% (G:12.31% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 53.31% (G:18.24% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.186..-0.154) - [0.0%]
10. Rollout¹ 5/3*(2) eq:-0.184 (-0.156)
Player: 45.89% (G:13.77% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 54.11% (G:17.59% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.199..-0.170) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
-------
Variant
-------
XGID=-a-a-BCBA---dE-a-b-d-b--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11
1. Rollout¹ 24/22(2) eq:-0.064
Player: 48.42% (G:11.82% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 51.58% (G:13.11% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.075..-0.053) - [99.1%]
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.082 (-0.018)
Player: 48.54% (G:12.71% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 51.46% (G:15.84% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.092..-0.072) - [0.8%]
3. Rollout¹ 24/23 8/5 eq:-0.086 (-0.022)
Player: 48.32% (G:13.01% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 51.68% (G:16.28% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.096..-0.077) - [0.1%]
¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)