• Another test of Paul's theory about the 8pt vs the 5pt

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Tue Oct 26 23:06:20 2021
    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O |
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Tim Chow on Wed Oct 27 06:57:17 2021
    On Wednesday, October 27, 2021 at 4:06:24 AM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O |
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    13/10 (2) and 6/3(2).
    But where's my analysis?
    Hey, isn't that question a tad unreasonable?
    I just stated my view on the desirability of maintaining extra points instead of the 5 points,
    and now we're testing it out.
    I don't have time to write a book on the subject.

    Paul

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  • From ah...Clem@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Wed Oct 27 13:19:56 2021
    On 10/26/2021 11:06 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1   O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
     | X        O  O  X |   | O  O  O          |
     | X           O  X |   | O  O             |
     | X                |   | O                |  | X                |   |                  |
     |                  |   |                  |
     |                  |BAR|                  |
     | O                |   | X                |  | O                |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O           X    |   | X                |  | O        X  X    |   | X              O |  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count  X: 151  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    I'm not sure what Paul's theory is, but the five point is usually more
    valuable than the eight, but how much can you give up to make the five
    point? Here, we can make two additional points when making the five
    point means simply switching points without making a new one or leaving
    a double indirect shot.

    I'll just unstack the midpoint and six points. Maybe making the bar
    point is better, or even playing off the eighteen.

    13/10(2) 6/3(2).

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Oct 30 19:21:23 2021
    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O |
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    XG doesn't think 13/10(2) is a whopper but it doesn't like it either.
    In part, it's because the fly shots left by 8/5(2) aren't so serious
    when O's board is weak. For comparison, see the variant.

    1. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.374
    Player: 58.14% (G:15.75% B:0.40%)
    Opponent: 41.86% (G:7.27% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.363..+0.386) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.326 (-0.048)
    Player: 57.65% (G:12.30% B:0.34%)
    Opponent: 42.35% (G:7.35% B:0.29%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.313..+0.338) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD---bBcbb----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | X O X | | O O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    1. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.127
    Player: 53.06% (G:9.89% B:0.27%)
    Opponent: 46.94% (G:8.50% B:0.30%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.113..+0.140) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.088 (-0.039)
    Player: 51.80% (G:10.81% B:0.22%)
    Opponent: 48.20% (G:8.44% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.077..+0.099) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From badgolferman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Sun Oct 31 13:55:18 2021
    Timothy Chow wrote:

    XGID=-a----E-CA--eD--abBcba----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O X | | O O O |
    | X O X | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X O | +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    ---
    Tim Chow


    I've seen the answer, but here's an example which I would have bombed
    this quiz.

    My play would have been 18/15(2) 6/3(2)

    I find it difficult to move off the opponent's bar point without
    getting in trouble so anytime a double provides that option I will
    usually take it.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Jan 1 22:19:45 2022
    I already have two "active" problems posted right now, so for this
    position I'm just going to post the rollout immediately. It's another
    one of those positions that Paul was talking about where making the
    5pt with 33 gives up the 8pt.

    XGID=-b----E-C-A-eD---a-dc---AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

    X:Player 1 O:Player 2
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O X |
    | X | | O O |
    | X | | O O |
    | X | | O |
    | | X | |
    | |BAR| |
    | O | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X | | X O |
    | O X X | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 165 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 33

    1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 6/3(2) eq:+0.038
    Player: 51.19% (G:16.27% B:1.02%)
    Opponent: 48.81% (G:15.93% B:0.67%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.030..+0.046) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/10 8/5(2) eq:-0.020 (-0.058)
    Player: 49.59% (G:17.30% B:1.05%)
    Opponent: 50.41% (G:17.79% B:0.89%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.028..-0.012) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ Bar/22 13/7 10/7 eq:-0.032 (-0.070)
    Player: 49.85% (G:14.29% B:0.86%)
    Opponent: 50.15% (G:16.64% B:0.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.040..-0.025) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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