On Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 5:24:49 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
XGID=---b-BCBC---bC-A-cbdb---A-:0:0:1:21:0:2:0:7:10
Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 142 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 1
X to play 21
The play is to work on getting the back checker out of there. Coming all the way to the edge of the prime was preferred by XG, possibly because that brings it 6 pips from the other blot, but tinkering with the position gives me doubts about that. Out of
curiosity (Tim's post) regarding what 1 would be played with 24/22, XG doesn't move the blot on 15, possibly to duplicate 3s and to avoid a 65 hit from Os anchor. 66 from the anchor would be the death knell for X and the blot on 15 would just be going to
the funeral.
Bob
XGID=---b-BCBC---bC-A-cbdb---A-:0:0:1:21:0:2:0:7:10
Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 142 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 1
X to play 21
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 eq:+0.100
Player: 52.00% (G:12.25% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 48.00% (G:17.67% B:0.81%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.081..+0.119) - [99.9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
2. Rollout² 24/22 8/7 eq:+0.056 (-0.044)
Player: 51.19% (G:12.73% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 48.81% (G:18.29% B:0.59%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.038..+0.075) - [0.1%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds
3. Rollout² 13/10 eq:+0.052 (-0.048)
Player: 50.53% (G:11.96% B:0.64%)
Opponent: 49.47% (G:17.20% B:0.88%)
Confidence: ±0.021 (+0.031..+0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
4. Rollout² 24/22 6/5 eq:+0.049 (-0.051)
Player: 51.03% (G:11.70% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 48.97% (G:18.21% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.031..+0.067) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
5. Rollout² 15/13 8/7 eq:+0.037 (-0.064)
Player: 49.67% (G:10.30% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 50.33% (G:13.56% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.020 (+0.017..+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
¹ 550 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
² 551 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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