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  • Don't look back?

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Tue Mar 21 09:02:23 2023
    XGID=abBa--BaC---aD---b-c-BBbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Tue Mar 21 20:33:52 2023
    On 3/21/2023 12:02 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=abBa--BaC---aD---b-c-BBbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Despite O's buried checkers and all her blots, I would take this
    as O. X still has a lot of work to do, and has two checkers of
    his own on his 2pt that are somewhat misplaced. But I think that
    a slightly favorable exchange will lose X's market, so D/T for me.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Thu Mar 23 07:17:47 2023
    On Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 12:02:25 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=abBa--BaC---aD---b-c-BBbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    This position was unusual enough that I found it disorienting. It took some time for me to see that this is a pretty strong double and that the take/pass side is the close decision. O's blots, her killed checkers waiting for a blitz that doesn't look
    promising, and likely losing battle for outfield control, are enough to entertain passing, IMO.

    Bob

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:32.08% B:4.12%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:10.60% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 67.88% (G:32.38% B:4.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.12% (G:10.71% B:0.36%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.613, Double=+1.231

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.825 (-0.152)
    Double/Take: +0.977
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.023)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.807..+0.843)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.950..+1.004)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 95.6%

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Thu Mar 23 07:40:45 2023
    On Thursday, March 23, 2023 at 2:17:49 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 12:02:25 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=abBa--BaC---aD---b-c-BBbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    This position was unusual enough that I found it disorienting. It took some time for me to see that this is a pretty strong double and that the take/pass side is the close decision. O's blots, her killed checkers waiting for a blitz that doesn't look
    promising, and likely losing battle for outfield control, are enough to entertain passing, IMO.

    Bob
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X O | | O X X O O |
    | X | | O |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | X | | |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X O | | X O X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 178 O: 166 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.04% (G:32.08% B:4.12%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.96% (G:10.60% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 67.88% (G:32.38% B:4.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 32.12% (G:10.71% B:0.36%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.613, Double=+1.231

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.825 (-0.152)
    Double/Take: +0.977
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.023)

    Best Cube action: Double / Take

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.018 (+0.807..+0.843)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.027 (+0.950..+1.004)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 95.6%

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    It's better for the cuber than I would have thought.
    I thought this was either a very easy take or even an ND/T.
    In fact, passing is not such a bad play.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)