On Tuesday, March 21, 2023 at 8:25:42 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
XGID=---BaBBBB-A-cBaa---cbbb-B-:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | | +---+
| O X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 123 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21
---
Tim Chow
Making the 10 point might hold O's back checker for a couple of rolls if we're not hit on the 13, only to have to resort to a blitz shortly thereafter. So I don't see much value with the 10 point except that it might make for a safer blitz that plays a 6
from there. I'd be asking the question whether to blitz at all or just play as safely as possible with 10/7 and try to minimize the gammon risk. I can imagine not having a difficult time extracting the back checkers if the blitz goes well, and as X works
in the outfield to prime us while fending off a blitz, there is a less than trivial chance of hitting from the anchor. I'll guess 26% wins against 49% gammons with 7/4.
Here goes.
7/4.
Bob
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