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  • The safe play is ugly

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Sat Mar 18 08:55:30 2023
    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 20 08:52:52 2023
    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
    whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
    Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
    Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
    Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
    Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
    Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Mar 20 06:24:04 2023
    On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:54:21 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54
    This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
    whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
    Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
    Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
    Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54
    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
    Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
    Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    I Walted this one and correctly chose the safe play.
    I wasn't confident, though.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Mon Mar 20 06:29:34 2023
    On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 1:24:06 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:54:21 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O | +---+
    | X | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54
    This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
    whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.

    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
    Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
    Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
    Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
    Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
    Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
    Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
    Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O | | O O O | +---+
    | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
    | X | | O | +---+
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    | O X X O | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 2, O own cube
    X to play 54
    1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
    Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
    Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]

    2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
    Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
    Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
    I Walted this one and correctly chose the safe play.
    I wasn't confident, though.

    Sorry, I misread. I chose the safe play -- 10/6 10/5
    which is not the optimal choice.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)