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  • March badness

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Thu Mar 16 20:38:20 2023
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri Mar 17 10:50:41 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play.
    My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Mar 17 10:58:20 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 5:50:42 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play.
    My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.


    I'm fairly sure it's 13/12* 24/18 but I'm not sure how fair it is to ask for a resit?
    Bob, what is the retake policy at your university?
    Can quizzes be retaken?
    My excuse is that I couldn't concentrate because the windows in my dorm won't close
    and a fly was disturbing me by flying too close to my ear. It wasn't my fault. I never invited the fly in.

    Please show some generosity and allow me to do a retake.
    I will then go for 13/12* 24/18 -- look at that duplication.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Mar 17 12:20:54 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 1:58:22 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 5:50:42 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play. My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.

    I'm fairly sure it's 13/12* 24/18 but I'm not sure how fair it is to ask for a resit?
    Bob, what is the retake policy at your university?
    Can quizzes be retaken?
    My excuse is that I couldn't concentrate because the windows in my dorm won't close
    and a fly was disturbing me by flying too close to my ear. It wasn't my fault.
    I never invited the fly in.

    Please show some generosity and allow me to do a retake.
    I will then go for 13/12* 24/18 -- look at that duplication.

    Paul

    You don't leave five blots strewn around when the opp. has a board that strong and plenty of entering + hitting numbers. You've made 1s, 4s, and 5s hit with your play whereas at least with 17* it's only 3s and 5s that hit .....and 3 blots instead of 5.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Fri Mar 17 14:00:09 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 1:58:22 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 5:50:42 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play. My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.

    I'm fairly sure it's 13/12* 24/18 but I'm not sure how fair it is to ask for a resit?
    Bob, what is the retake policy at your university?
    Can quizzes be retaken?
    My excuse is that I couldn't concentrate because the windows in my dorm won't close
    and a fly was disturbing me by flying too close to my ear. It wasn't my fault.
    I never invited the fly in.

    Please show some generosity and allow me to do a retake.
    I will then go for 13/12* 24/18 -- look at that duplication.

    Paul

    Just a problem set. And not due until Monday. So keep working on it, Paul. You're way off...sorry. <(:-(
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Fri Mar 17 18:04:48 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 9:00:12 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 1:58:22 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 5:50:42 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play.
    My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.

    I'm fairly sure it's 13/12* 24/18 but I'm not sure how fair it is to ask for a resit?
    Bob, what is the retake policy at your university?
    Can quizzes be retaken?
    My excuse is that I couldn't concentrate because the windows in my dorm won't close
    and a fly was disturbing me by flying too close to my ear. It wasn't my fault.
    I never invited the fly in.

    Please show some generosity and allow me to do a retake.
    I will then go for 13/12* 24/18 -- look at that duplication.

    Paul
    Just a problem set. And not due until Monday. So keep working on it, Paul. You're way off...sorry. <(:-(
    Bob

    I don't think I'll work on it any more because I'll be too busy studying Bryant and O'Hallaron's book on Computer Systems.
    [The above is not a joke but is quite literally true -- I'm hoping it will help me get a job because questions in my job interviews
    that have their answers in that text come up all the time.]

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Sat Mar 18 08:40:28 2023
    On 3/16/2023 11:38 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    I think we have to hit, and the only question is how. Making
    the bar point leaves a direct shot and doesn't have as much
    upside as hitting.

    13/12* 11/5 is the safest hitting play. There's also 13/12* 13/7,
    but the extra shots don't look worth it to me. For me the main
    alternative is 24/17*. This certainly has a bigger upside if we're
    missed, but is 15 return shots worth it? It seems like a lot. Not
    sure, but I would probably play 13/12* 11/5 OTB.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Stick Rice on Sat Mar 18 06:06:29 2023
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 7:20:55 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 1:58:22 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 5:50:42 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Friday, March 17, 2023 at 3:38:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61
    It's a good problem. I'm not all sure what to do.
    I'm fairly confident that we hit but there is more than one hitting play.
    My candidates are 24/17* and 13/12* 13/7.
    24/17* gives more returns but not that many more, and the opponent is an underdog
    to hit back. I think that 24/17* gives 5/12 return-hit probability and, if the opponent misses,
    we'll be in great shape to attack the 12 point blot. Also 24/17* helps the escape.
    24/17* for me but with no confidence.

    I'm fairly sure it's 13/12* 24/18 but I'm not sure how fair it is to ask for a resit?
    Bob, what is the retake policy at your university?
    Can quizzes be retaken?
    My excuse is that I couldn't concentrate because the windows in my dorm won't close
    and a fly was disturbing me by flying too close to my ear. It wasn't my fault.
    I never invited the fly in.

    Please show some generosity and allow me to do a retake.
    I will then go for 13/12* 24/18 -- look at that duplication.

    Paul
    You don't leave five blots strewn around when the opp. has a board that strong and plenty of entering + hitting numbers. You've made 1s, 4s, and 5s hit with your play whereas at least with 17* it's only 3s and 5s that hit .....and 3 blots instead of 5.

    Stick

    Yes, thanks. This is a beginner's trap that I often fall into -- erroneously thinking that my blots that are (for now) out of reach don't really count as blots.
    But, of course, gammons and backgammons are regularly won by hitting an easy blot first and then picking everything else up while the opponent dances.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 20 06:33:40 2023
    Well, the preferred play depends on the match score. At 3A5A, XG makes the bar point. I'm hoping someone will explain it to me if I'm wrong, but I think XG anticipates a double down that road that may be takeable and where O's GV will at that point be 0.
    7.
    For money, XG plays 24/17*.

    My play was 13/12*, 11/5. I think the point here is that this is a prime vs prime game, so a move that doesn't a. jump the opponent's prime and hit at the same time (powerful), or b. improve the prime immediately, doesn't rate, especially when it stacks
    up the 6 and 5 points even more (my play), leaving a poor distribution for priming.

    Bob

    XGID=-b---CD-C--AaBa--a-dbbb-B-:0:0:1:61:2:0:0:5:10

    Score is X:2 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 2-0/5
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.275
    Player: 47.54% (G:13.75% B:1.50%)
    Opponent: 52.46% (G:19.82% B:1.78%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.285..-0.265) - [92.5%]
    Duration: 7 minutes 55 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 24/17* eq:-0.287 (-0.012)
    Player: 48.58% (G:16.45% B:3.92%)
    Opponent: 51.42% (G:26.35% B:1.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.300..-0.274) - [7.5%]
    Duration: 11 minutes 03 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 13/12* 11/5 eq:-0.374 (-0.100)
    Player: 45.61% (G:14.98% B:2.49%)
    Opponent: 54.39% (G:20.34% B:1.53%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.385..-0.364) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds

    4. 3-ply 13/12* 12/6 eq:-0.436 (-0.161)
    Player: 44.02% (G:13.34% B:1.03%)
    Opponent: 55.98% (G:20.58% B:1.62%)

    5. 1-ply 13/7 13/12* eq:-0.632 (-0.357)
    Player: 42.57% (G:12.88% B:1.03%)
    Opponent: 57.43% (G:26.47% B:3.46%)


    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2 -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Money
    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O O O O X |
    | X | | O O O O X |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | |
    | | | X |
    | X | | X X |
    | X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 148 O: 128 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 61

    1. Rollout¹ 24/17* eq:-0.107
    Player: 49.08% (G:16.01% B:1.34%)
    Opponent: 50.92% (G:26.00% B:1.54%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.122..-0.092) - [100.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds

    2. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/7 eq:-0.144 (-0.037)
    Player: 47.88% (G:14.18% B:1.15%)
    Opponent: 52.12% (G:20.96% B:2.02%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.160..-0.128) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds

    3. Rollout¹ 13/12* 11/5 eq:-0.191 (-0.084)
    Player: 46.04% (G:14.72% B:1.27%)
    Opponent: 53.96% (G:20.47% B:1.62%)
    Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.210..-0.172) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds

    4. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/12* eq:-0.369 (-0.262)
    Player: 44.72% (G:14.06% B:1.27%)
    Opponent: 55.28% (G:34.41% B:6.88%)
    Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.391..-0.346) - [0.0%]
    Duration: 4 minutes 18 seconds

    5. 3-ply 13/12* 12/6 eq:-0.291 (-0.184)
    Player: 44.16% (G:13.51% B:1.05%)
    Opponent: 55.84% (G:21.97% B:1.85%)


    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)