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  • Hit twice or make the 4pt?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 13 10:24:46 2023
    Stick got this one right from the subject line alone.

    XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Mar 13 08:49:40 2023
    On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:24:49 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    Stick got this one right from the subject line alone.

    XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    The four point is a weaker point than five and warrants less risk. And it becomes useless in the near-term once O anchors on the bar point. Not worth 15 shots at the blot you leave. Hit two.

    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Mon Mar 13 08:54:12 2023
    On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 11:49:42 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:24:49 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    Stick got this one right from the subject line alone.

    XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow
    The four point is a weaker point than five and warrants less risk. And it becomes useless in the near-term once O anchors on the bar point. Not worth 15 shots at the blot you leave. Hit two.

    Bob

    For comparison, move the nine point to the 10 point and change the dice to 53. Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Stick Rice@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Mon Mar 13 10:26:35 2023
    On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:24:49 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
    Stick got this one right from the subject line alone.

    XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    ---
    Tim Chow

    I made the 5pt.

    Stick

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Wed Mar 15 10:15:49 2023
    XGID=-a----EaCB--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    I'm a little surprised that XG goes for the attack here, but X does
    have 10 checkers in the zone, and making the 4pt breaks the 9pt anyway.

    1. Rollout¹ 9/7* 6/1* eq:+0.324
    Player: 56.87% (G:17.24% B:0.36%)
    Opponent: 43.13% (G:7.72% B:0.31%)
    Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.309..+0.338) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/4 6/4 eq:+0.269 (-0.055)
    Player: 55.51% (G:14.04% B:0.38%)
    Opponent: 44.49% (G:6.24% B:0.24%)
    Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.257..+0.280) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    -------
    Variant
    -------

    XGID=-a----EaBC--dC---bbeB-----:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | O | | X |
    | O X | | X |
    | O X X | | X |
    | O X X O | | X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 152 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹ 9/4 6/4 eq:+0.380
    Player: 58.51% (G:13.83% B:0.33%)
    Opponent: 41.49% (G:5.19% B:0.18%)
    Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.371..+0.389) - [98.9%]

    2. Rollout¹ 9/7* 6/1* eq:+0.364 (-0.016)
    Player: 57.58% (G:17.65% B:0.39%)
    Opponent: 42.42% (G:7.70% B:0.28%)
    Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.355..+0.374) - [1.1%]

    ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)