• Rollout (was: Prime versus prime)

    From Axel Reichert@21:1/5 to Axel Reichert on Fri Mar 17 07:02:52 2023
    Axel Reichert <mail@axel-reichert.de> writes:

    GNU Backgammon Position ID: bNsoAFhuuxEAKA
    Match ID : UQlgAXAACAAE
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+ O: gnubg
    | X X O O O O | O | O O O | 7 points
    | O O O O | | O |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |v 11 point match
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | |
    | O X X X X X | | | On roll
    | O X X X X X | | X | 1 point
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+ X: axel (Cube: 2)
    Pip counts: O 144, X 103

    With less than 40 % doubling chances it is a redouble at this score.
    20 % gammon chances.

    Cube analysis
    Rollout cubeless equity +0.044 (Money: -0.153)

    Cubeful equities:
    1. Double, take +0.493
    2. Double, pass +1.000 (+0.507)
    3. No double +0.388 (-0.104)
    Proper cube action: Redouble, take

    Rollout details:
    Player axel owns 2-cube:
    0.390 0.189 0.028 - 0.610 0.144 0.005 CL +0.044 CF +0.388
    [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.008 CF 0.007]
    Player gnubg owns 4-cube:
    0.390 0.193 0.030 - 0.610 0.145 0.005 CL +0.493 CF +0.493
    [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL 0.010 CF 0.010]
    Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 6) with variance reduction
    254 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 449002682 and quasi-random dice Stop when std.errs. are small enough: limit 0.0100 (min. 36 games)
    Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
    Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
    Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    Different evaluations after 2 plies:
    Play: 1-ply cubeful
    keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
    Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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