XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 2:32:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Bob

Bob,

Stick is correct literally far more than 99% of the time.
I promise you that his play is correct.
That raises the question of why his responses are (almost)
always correct.
At least part of the reason is that he is one of the greatest
bg players in the entire world. This may be the only reason.
However, I wouldn't say "Well, of course, since he's a world
class player, he gets all the quiz questions right. That totally
explains it."
The problem with that argument is that the experience of
other forums which also have contributions from world-class
players is that these other players, who are as good as Stick,
make many more errors.

Stick certainly knows the correct play and he has constructed
an argument (whether fallacious or not) that justifies his play
in terms of the pip count.
The bit about "nobody should get this wrong" is typical Stick
nonsense. A great player is not necessarily a great forum contributor.
I'm sure I'm stronger than most forum readers (though definitely
not strong in relation to other active posters) and the play is
not clear to me.

I would play 20/10 but such a mundane play is unlikely to be correct.
It's a good problem.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 6:50:46 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 2:32:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Bob

Bob,

Stick is correct literally far more than 99% of the time.
I promise you that his play is correct.
That raises the question of why his responses are (almost)
always correct.
At least part of the reason is that he is one of the greatest
bg players in the entire world. This may be the only reason.
However, I wouldn't say "Well, of course, since he's a world
class player, he gets all the quiz questions right. That totally
explains it."
The problem with that argument is that the experience of
other forums which also have contributions from world-class
players is that these other players, who are as good as Stick,
make many more errors.

Stick certainly knows the correct play and he has constructed
an argument (whether fallacious or not) that justifies his play
in terms of the pip count.
The bit about "nobody should get this wrong" is typical Stick
nonsense. A great player is not necessarily a great forum contributor.
I'm sure I'm stronger than most forum readers (though definitely
not strong in relation to other active posters) and the play is
not clear to me.

I would play 20/10 but such a mundane play is unlikely to be correct.
It's a good problem.

Paul

You have probably noticed by now, Paul, that I'm not a big fan of arrogance. Maybe my "return shots" are too subtle to be recognized for what they are. Of course I know Stick knows the correct play, whether through sheer genius or otherwise. I don't take
personal offence, but I've never been good at resisting an opportunity to give back to an emperor without clothes. :-)

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 1:03:24 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 6:50:46 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 2:32:21 AM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Bob

Bob,

Stick is correct literally far more than 99% of the time.
I promise you that his play is correct.
That raises the question of why his responses are (almost)
always correct.
At least part of the reason is that he is one of the greatest
bg players in the entire world. This may be the only reason.
However, I wouldn't say "Well, of course, since he's a world
class player, he gets all the quiz questions right. That totally
explains it."
The problem with that argument is that the experience of
other forums which also have contributions from world-class
players is that these other players, who are as good as Stick,
make many more errors.

Stick certainly knows the correct play and he has constructed
an argument (whether fallacious or not) that justifies his play
in terms of the pip count.
The bit about "nobody should get this wrong" is typical Stick
nonsense. A great player is not necessarily a great forum contributor.
I'm sure I'm stronger than most forum readers (though definitely
not strong in relation to other active posters) and the play is
not clear to me.

I would play 20/10 but such a mundane play is unlikely to be correct.
It's a good problem.

Paul

You have probably noticed by now, Paul, that I'm not a big fan of arrogance. Maybe my "return shots" are too subtle to be recognized for what they are. Of course I know Stick knows the correct play, whether through sheer genius or otherwise. I don't

take personal offence, but I've never been good at resisting an opportunity to give back to an emperor without clothes. :-)

Bob

Oh, ok. I was being too literal. I didn't know that you knew who Stick is -- he's not a TV celebrity after all.
I don't think Stick knows the play by "sheer genius". It might be one of many positions that world-class players
just know, not through genius, but through understanding and experience -- the same way non-beginners
know that it's usually best to avoid stacks of eight or more checkers on your six point.
I like the problem and I'm looking forward to the rollout.
This forum does have a shortage of experts among the active posters.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:32:21 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Of course it does. Though it's hard to create variants to illustrate this because it completely changes the position maybe something along the lines of XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10 will suffice.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 12:37:09 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:32:21 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Of course it does. Though it's hard to create variants to illustrate this because it completely changes the position maybe something along the lines of XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10 will suffice.

Stick

I'll credit you with a sense of humor! Well played.
Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 11:09:51 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 12:37:09 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:32:21 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:22:07 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

With the pip count staring you right in the face nobody should get this wrong.

Stick

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

Of course it does. Though it's hard to create variants to illustrate this because it completely changes the position maybe something along the lines of XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10 will suffice.

Stick

I'll credit you with a sense of humor! Well played.

I puzzled and puzzled over that one, before realizing that the "variant" was the same.
This is consistent with ordinary non-humorous mathematical usage where
x being "close to" or "near to" y includes the possibility that x and y are the same.

Paul Epstein

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/10/2023 9:32 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

It's been many years since Stick has made a comment of this
type without having the right play in mind.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/10/2023 12:33 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

I'm sure that OTB, I would play 20/10 without much thought.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:24:41 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/10/2023 9:32 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

It's been many years since Stick has made a comment of this
type without having the right play in mind.

---
Tim Chow

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/12/2023 8:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:24:41 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/10/2023 9:32 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

It's been many years since Stick has made a comment of this
type without having the right play in mind.

---
Tim Chow

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

I'm confused. When you say "his response," do you mean
Stick's response or Bob's response? And which response
are you referring to?

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:38:50 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 8:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:24:41 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/10/2023 9:32 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

You must not be making the right play. It has nothing to do with the pip count.

It's been many years since Stick has made a comment of this
type without having the right play in mind.

---
Tim Chow

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

I'm confused. When you say "his response," do you mean
Stick's response or Bob's response? And which response
are you referring to?

I mean that Bob's comment "You must not be making the right play." is not meant to be taken
literally.
However, there are an enormous number of sources of confusion in modern life so I wouldn't
claim to have successfully deconfused you.

Joke time (and this joke is original to me).
A quant takes a break while thinking about her logistic regression model has performed.
She examines the matrix, and is concerned about the number of false positives and false negatives.

She gets up from her desk and walks to the door, then she notices the time on the wall clock and goes back to her desk.
Then she decides it's time for a break after all because it's nearly lunch time so she gets up again.

This disconcerts her manager who says: "I see you keep getting up and down and you've got this puzzled look on your face.
Are you confused about something?"
"Excuse me!" she replies. "You think I'm the one that's confused? You should just check out my matrix!"

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

X is begging for contact in this position where he has a huge advantage on inner board strength and is at a disadvantage when it comes to outfield control. He'll move two checkers, and hopefully the remaining blot next roll, to the outfield to improve
his position there and hope to hit the checkers on O's anchor if it breaks in time. Alternatively he'll hope O eventually hits one of those two checkers (she'll decline the invitation on her next roll, without rolling a combo of 1s and 2s) so that he may
preserve his timing.

Variant 1 is a pip count test that doesn't eviscerate the position, IMO.

Bob

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.456
Player: 40.26% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 59.74% (G:7.99% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.465..-0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.514 (-0.058)
Player: 38.12% (G:7.44% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.88% (G:10.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.525..-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.527 (-0.071)
Player: 37.78% (G:6.72% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 62.22% (G:9.35% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.537..-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 1
------------------------------

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--X:Player 1 O:Player 2
cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 156 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.155
Player: 48.89% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 51.11% (G:8.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.166..-0.144) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.268 (-0.113)
Player: 45.46% (G:11.47% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.281..-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

3. Rollout² 20/10 eq:-0.307 (-0.152)
Player: 44.24% (G:9.87% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:8.20% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.319..-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds


¹ 1086 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1085 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:22:52 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

X is begging for contact in this position where he has a huge advantage on inner board strength and is at a disadvantage when it comes to outfield control. He'll move two checkers, and hopefully the remaining blot next roll, to the outfield to improve

his position there and hope to hit the checkers on O's anchor if it breaks in time. Alternatively he'll hope O eventually hits one of those two checkers (she'll decline the invitation on her next roll, without rolling a combo of 1s and 2s) so that he may
preserve his timing.

Variant 1 is a pip count test that doesn't eviscerate the position, IMO.

Bob
XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.456
Player: 40.26% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 59.74% (G:7.99% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.465..-0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.514 (-0.058)
Player: 38.12% (G:7.44% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.88% (G:10.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.525..-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.527 (-0.071)
Player: 37.78% (G:6.72% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 62.22% (G:9.35% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.537..-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 1
------------------------------

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--X:Player 1 O:Player 2
cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 156 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.155
Player: 48.89% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 51.11% (G:8.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.166..-0.144) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.268 (-0.113)
Player: 45.46% (G:11.47% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.281..-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

3. Rollout² 20/10 eq:-0.307 (-0.152)
Player: 44.24% (G:9.87% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:8.20% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.319..-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 1086 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1085 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The variant you posted has the XGID garbled. Here it is for anyone who wants it clean:

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Your variant also puts us _ahead_ in the race, of course we're still coming out then, that's the whole point of my original post. In no position that is similar where the race is even moderately close are we going to do anything but come off the anchor
because we have no hope of a backgame and ok chances going forward/even racing. My variant puts us significantly behind in the race as one generally is holding two anchors and five men back and in that sort of position. Without the pip count staring us
in the face, I could see someone mistakingly keeping both anchors. As a posted problem with it smashing us in the face, nobody should make that mistake.

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:54:36 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:22:52 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

X is begging for contact in this position where he has a huge advantage on inner board strength and is at a disadvantage when it comes to outfield control. He'll move two checkers, and hopefully the remaining blot next roll, to the outfield to

improve his position there and hope to hit the checkers on O's anchor if it breaks in time. Alternatively he'll hope O eventually hits one of those two checkers (she'll decline the invitation on her next roll, without rolling a combo of 1s and 2s) so
that he may preserve his timing.

Variant 1 is a pip count test that doesn't eviscerate the position, IMO.

Bob
XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.456
Player: 40.26% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 59.74% (G:7.99% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.465..-0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.514 (-0.058)
Player: 38.12% (G:7.44% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.88% (G:10.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.525..-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.527 (-0.071)
Player: 37.78% (G:6.72% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 62.22% (G:9.35% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.537..-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 1
------------------------------

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--X:Player 1 O:Player 2
cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 156 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.155
Player: 48.89% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 51.11% (G:8.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.166..-0.144) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.268 (-0.113)
Player: 45.46% (G:11.47% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.281..-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

3. Rollout² 20/10 eq:-0.307 (-0.152)
Player: 44.24% (G:9.87% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:8.20% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.319..-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 1086 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1085 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The variant you posted has the XGID garbled. Here it is for anyone who wants it clean:

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Your variant also puts us _ahead_ in the race, of course we're still coming out then, that's the whole point of my original post. In no position that is similar where the race is even moderately close are we going to do anything but come off the anchor

because we have no hope of a backgame and ok chances going forward/even racing. My variant puts us significantly behind in the race as one generally is holding two anchors and five men back and in that sort of position. Without the pip count staring us
in the face, I could see someone mistakingly keeping both anchors. As a posted problem with it smashing us in the face, nobody should make that mistake.

Stick

Your variant, as posted, is identical to the original. You must have wondered why I credited you with a sense of humor. Sorry about that.

It was difficult to know which direction to adjust the pip count in my variant without your being more plain than pip counts smashing faces. Because, of course, the pip count really doesn't matter. OK, technically the pip count always matters. Just like
when you're deciding whether you should take an umbrella outside with you, the forecast you just heard on TV might influence your decision, but if it's raining cats and dogs outside as you look out the window, you can probably neglect the forecast. Here,
the positional considerations trounce the pip count 1,000-fold. If they don't bash you over the head like a sledgehammer, well, I don't know what to say.

So let's try on the other direction for size.

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O X X O | | O O O | +---+
| O X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 122 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.516
Player: 38.30% (G:8.40% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.70% (G:13.06% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.529..-0.504) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.580 (-0.064)
Player: 36.44% (G:7.65% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 63.56% (G:12.19% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.593..-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds

¹ 762 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 8:25:51 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:54:36 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:22:52 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

X is begging for contact in this position where he has a huge advantage on inner board strength and is at a disadvantage when it comes to outfield control. He'll move two checkers, and hopefully the remaining blot next roll, to the outfield to

improve his position there and hope to hit the checkers on O's anchor if it breaks in time. Alternatively he'll hope O eventually hits one of those two checkers (she'll decline the invitation on her next roll, without rolling a combo of 1s and 2s) so
that he may preserve his timing.

Variant 1 is a pip count test that doesn't eviscerate the position, IMO.

Bob
XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.456
Player: 40.26% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 59.74% (G:7.99% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.465..-0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.514 (-0.058)
Player: 38.12% (G:7.44% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.88% (G:10.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.525..-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.527 (-0.071)
Player: 37.78% (G:6.72% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 62.22% (G:9.35% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.537..-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 1
------------------------------

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--X:Player 1 O:Player 2 cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 156 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.155
Player: 48.89% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 51.11% (G:8.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.166..-0.144) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.268 (-0.113)
Player: 45.46% (G:11.47% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.281..-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

3. Rollout² 20/10 eq:-0.307 (-0.152)
Player: 44.24% (G:9.87% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:8.20% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.319..-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 1086 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1085 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The variant you posted has the XGID garbled. Here it is for anyone who wants it clean:

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Your variant also puts us _ahead_ in the race, of course we're still coming out then, that's the whole point of my original post. In no position that is similar where the race is even moderately close are we going to do anything but come off the

anchor because we have no hope of a backgame and ok chances going forward/even racing. My variant puts us significantly behind in the race as one generally is holding two anchors and five men back and in that sort of position. Without the pip count
staring us in the face, I could see someone mistakingly keeping both anchors. As a posted problem with it smashing us in the face, nobody should make that mistake.

Stick

Your variant, as posted, is identical to the original. You must have wondered why I credited you with a sense of humor. Sorry about that.

It was difficult to know which direction to adjust the pip count in my variant without your being more plain than pip counts smashing faces. Because, of course, the pip count really doesn't matter. OK, technically the pip count always matters. Just

like when you're deciding whether you should take an umbrella outside with you, the forecast you just heard on TV might influence your decision, but if it's raining cats and dogs outside as you look out the window, you can probably neglect the forecast.
Here, the positional considerations trounce the pip count 1,000-fold. If they don't bash you over the head like a sledgehammer, well, I don't know what to say.

So let's try on the other direction for size.
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O X X O | | O O O | +---+
| O X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 122 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.516
Player: 38.30% (G:8.40% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.70% (G:13.06% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.529..-0.504) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.580 (-0.064)
Player: 36.44% (G:7.65% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 63.56% (G:12.19% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.593..-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds

¹ 762 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I scan/quick read most posts as I don't intend to spend much time on bg so I didn't catch that I pasted the same XGID. Here's the position that was supposed to be copied:

XGID=----BCCb-----Bb--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Stick

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 10:10:00 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 8:25:51 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:54:36 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 7:22:52 PM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

On Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:33:34 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

X is begging for contact in this position where he has a huge advantage on inner board strength and is at a disadvantage when it comes to outfield control. He'll move two checkers, and hopefully the remaining blot next roll, to the outfield to

improve his position there and hope to hit the checkers on O's anchor if it breaks in time. Alternatively he'll hope O eventually hits one of those two checkers (she'll decline the invitation on her next roll, without rolling a combo of 1s and 2s) so
that he may preserve his timing.

Variant 1 is a pip count test that doesn't eviscerate the position, IMO.

Bob
XGID=--B-BCCb------b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.456
Player: 40.26% (G:6.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 59.74% (G:7.99% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.465..-0.447) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.514 (-0.058)
Player: 38.12% (G:7.44% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.88% (G:10.34% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.525..-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.527 (-0.071)
Player: 37.78% (G:6.72% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 62.22% (G:9.35% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.537..-0.518) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant 1
------------------------------

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--X:Player 1 O:Player 2 cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 156 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.155
Player: 48.89% (G:11.65% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 51.11% (G:8.02% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.166..-0.144) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 21/15 5/1 eq:-0.268 (-0.113)
Player: 45.46% (G:11.47% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 54.54% (G:9.63% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.281..-0.256) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

3. Rollout² 20/10 eq:-0.307 (-0.152)
Player: 44.24% (G:9.87% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 55.76% (G:8.20% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.319..-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds

¹ 1086 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1085 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

The variant you posted has the XGID garbled. Here it is for anyone who wants it clean:

XGID=--B-BCCd------b--cbdCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Your variant also puts us _ahead_ in the race, of course we're still coming out then, that's the whole point of my original post. In no position that is similar where the race is even moderately close are we going to do anything but come off the

anchor because we have no hope of a backgame and ok chances going forward/even racing. My variant puts us significantly behind in the race as one generally is holding two anchors and five men back and in that sort of position. Without the pip count
staring us in the face, I could see someone mistakingly keeping both anchors. As a posted problem with it smashing us in the face, nobody should make that mistake.

Stick

Your variant, as posted, is identical to the original. You must have wondered why I credited you with a sense of humor. Sorry about that.

It was difficult to know which direction to adjust the pip count in my variant without your being more plain than pip counts smashing faces. Because, of course, the pip count really doesn't matter. OK, technically the pip count always matters. Just

like when you're deciding whether you should take an umbrella outside with you, the forecast you just heard on TV might influence your decision, but if it's raining cats and dogs outside as you look out the window, you can probably neglect the forecast.
Here, the positional considerations trounce the pip count 1,000-fold. If they don't bash you over the head like a sledgehammer, well, I don't know what to say.

So let's try on the other direction for size.
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match. +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O X X O | | O O O | +---+
| O X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 122 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.516
Player: 38.30% (G:8.40% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.70% (G:13.06% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.529..-0.504) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.580 (-0.064)
Player: 36.44% (G:7.65% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 63.56% (G:12.19% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.593..-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds

¹ 762 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I scan/quick read most posts as I don't intend to spend much time on bg so I didn't catch that I pasted the same XGID. Here's the position that was supposed to be copied:

XGID=----BCCb-----Bb--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Stick

The problem with that variant is that we already now have some pressure on O's back checkers, so the need to come out with 2 checkers and establish an outfield presence diminishes. The variant also reduces the strength of X's board, but that is minor.
To demonstrate that the pip count is decisive, IMHumbleO, you could try holding the pip count steady and show that modest changes to the position don't change the play. In this situation, that will be like keeping the weather forecast for rain the same
while going to the beach with an umbrella. Still useful if you're prone to sunburns.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/12/2023 12:15 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:38:50 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 8:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

I'm confused. When you say "his response," do you mean
Stick's response or Bob's response? And which response
are you referring to?

I mean that Bob's comment "You must not be making the right play." is not meant to be taken
literally.

Thanks for clarifying. I still don't see where Bob says that this
comment of his is not to be taken literally. But it's not that
important to chase this down.

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 3/13/2023 7:45 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The problem with that variant is that we already now have some pressure on O's back checkers, so the need to come out with 2 checkers and establish an outfield presence diminishes. The variant also reduces the strength of X's board, but that is minor.

As I understand it, the question is whether X's timing is so bad,
and his board so strong relative to O's, that we're "forced" to
jump two checkers out---blots be damned.

I don't think that's quite true. In your original position, I think
that XG rejects 20/10 more because it's a weak play than because
we're "forced" to jump out two checkers. Perhaps the variant below
sheds some light on this particular question.

XGID=--B-BBCb-A----b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/3 eq:-0.478
Player: 39.42% (G:7.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 60.58% (G:8.37% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.487..-0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/15 9/5 eq:-0.508 (-0.030)
Player: 38.36% (G:6.80% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.64% (G:7.90% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.517..-0.499) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.521 (-0.043)
Player: 38.44% (G:6.64% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 61.56% (G:10.53% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.530..-0.511) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.564 (-0.087)
Player: 36.95% (G:6.73% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 63.05% (G:11.11% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.575..-0.554) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 11:27:39 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 2:19:48 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 12:15 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:38:50 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 8:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

I'm confused. When you say "his response," do you mean
Stick's response or Bob's response? And which response
are you referring to?

I mean that Bob's comment "You must not be making the right play." is not meant to be taken
literally.

Thanks for clarifying. I still don't see where Bob says that this
comment of his is not to be taken literally. But it's not that
important to chase this down.

---
Tim Chow

I think I remember Bob saying that he's a university student (?).
That being the case, I can reveal where Bob made his comment.
He made it, on his phone, in the line for coffee in the cafeteria.

Paul

Delicious, Paul. Next time I'm buying.

Bob

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 2:18:05 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/13/2023 7:45 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The problem with that variant is that we already now have some pressure on O's back checkers, so the need to come out with 2 checkers and establish an outfield presence diminishes. The variant also reduces the strength of X's board, but that is minor.

As I understand it, the question is whether X's timing is so bad,
and his board so strong relative to O's, that we're "forced" to
jump two checkers out---blots be damned.

I don't think that's quite true. In your original position, I think
that XG rejects 20/10 more because it's a weak play than because
we're "forced" to jump out two checkers. Perhaps the variant below
sheds some light on this particular question.

XGID=--B-BBCb-A----b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/3 eq:-0.478
Player: 39.42% (G:7.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 60.58% (G:8.37% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.487..-0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/15 9/5 eq:-0.508 (-0.030)
Player: 38.36% (G:6.80% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.64% (G:7.90% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.517..-0.499) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.521 (-0.043)
Player: 38.44% (G:6.64% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 61.56% (G:10.53% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.530..-0.511) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.564 (-0.087)
Player: 36.95% (G:6.73% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 63.05% (G:11.11% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.575..-0.554) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

One plausible (to me) explanation of why the correct play in your variant is what it is, is
that 9/3 is a powerful 6 which slots a great point in preparation for a 5 point board, so that
needs to be played. And then we look for the best 4.
These positions are very difficult (for me), and I can only talk about what I would do without
opining. I like 9/3 a lot, and I think that I would have played this variant correctly.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 2:19:48 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 12:15 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

On Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 12:38:50 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/12/2023 8:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

Yes, Bob has already said in this thread that his response is not to be taken literally.
I also didn't realise that.

I'm confused. When you say "his response," do you mean
Stick's response or Bob's response? And which response
are you referring to?

I mean that Bob's comment "You must not be making the right play." is not meant to be taken
literally.

Thanks for clarifying. I still don't see where Bob says that this
comment of his is not to be taken literally. But it's not that
important to chase this down.

---
Tim Chow

I think I remember Bob saying that he's a university student (?).
That being the case, I can reveal where Bob made his comment.
He made it, on his phone, in the line for coffee in the cafeteria.

Paul

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Monday, March 13, 2023 at 10:18:05 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:

On 3/13/2023 7:45 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:

The problem with that variant is that we already now have some pressure on O's back checkers, so the need to come out with 2 checkers and establish an outfield presence diminishes. The variant also reduces the strength of X's board, but that is minor.

As I understand it, the question is whether X's timing is so bad,
and his board so strong relative to O's, that we're "forced" to
jump two checkers out---blots be damned.

I don't think that's quite true. In your original position, I think
that XG rejects 20/10 more because it's a weak play than because
we're "forced" to jump out two checkers. Perhaps the variant below
sheds some light on this particular question.

XGID=--B-BBCb-A----b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10
Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X X | | 2 |
| O | | O X | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64
1. Rollout¹ 20/16 9/3 eq:-0.478
Player: 39.42% (G:7.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 60.58% (G:8.37% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.487..-0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/15 9/5 eq:-0.508 (-0.030)
Player: 38.36% (G:6.80% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.64% (G:7.90% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.517..-0.499) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.521 (-0.043)
Player: 38.44% (G:6.64% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 61.56% (G:10.53% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.530..-0.511) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 21/11 eq:-0.564 (-0.087)
Player: 36.95% (G:6.73% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 63.05% (G:11.11% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.575..-0.554) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

I think we agree. 20/10 is a weak play because when O hits there, there are no return shots. So what's left? If X comes out with 2 checkers, as the game develops (O is not going to hit this roll unless 11,12,22), he'll have a return shot.
Your variant with the blot on the 9 point leaves a juicy 6 slotting the 3, so the play changes. Try that blot placed on the 8 point, and you're back to the original play ranking up there with another that moves the blot in.

XGID=--B-BBCbA-----b--dbeCB----:1:-1:1:64:0:1:0:5:10

Score is X:0 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| X X O | | O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X X X | | O |
| X X X X | | O X |
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 150 O: 134 X-O: 0-1/5
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 20/16 eq:-0.497
Player: 39.06% (G:6.60% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 60.94% (G:9.86% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.507..-0.487) - [98.8%]
Duration: 4 minutes 59 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 21/15 8/4 eq:-0.512 (-0.015)
Player: 38.42% (G:6.53% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 61.58% (G:8.24% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.522..-0.503) - [1.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 20/10 eq:-0.549 (-0.052)
Player: 37.48% (G:7.48% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 62.52% (G:11.05% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.560..-0.538) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds


¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)