• Step up or make a point?

    From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Thu Mar 9 09:30:07 2023
    XGID=-bB---EBA---bC--abce----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 13 10:23:53 2023
    XGID=-bB---EBA---bC--abce----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | X O O O | | O X |
    | X O O | | O X |
    | X O | | O |
    | | | O |
    | | | O |
    | |BAR| |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | O X | | X X O |
    | O X X | | X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 143 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X to play 32

    There are several points you could choose to make, but XG favors
    stepping up, even though it seems to give O a chance to unload those
    stacked-up checkers on X's head. But O has a priming threat as well
    as an attacking threat, and X is running out of time to escape his
    back checkers. O's board is still weak, and if she points on one
    of X's checkers, he may be able to anchor on the other.

    1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.118
    Player: 47.30% (G:15.38% B:1.01%)
    Opponent: 52.70% (G:20.03% B:1.03%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.132..-0.105) - [100.0%]

    2. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/4 eq:-0.187 (-0.068)
    Player: 45.89% (G:15.31% B:1.15%)
    Opponent: 54.11% (G:20.69% B:1.52%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.203..-0.171) - [0.0%]

    3. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.206 (-0.088)
    Player: 43.96% (G:16.31% B:1.07%)
    Opponent: 56.04% (G:17.53% B:1.23%)
    Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.222..-0.191) - [0.0%]

    4. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/11 eq:-0.207 (-0.089)
    Player: 45.08% (G:15.30% B:1.12%)
    Opponent: 54.92% (G:19.62% B:1.37%)
    Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.220..-0.195) - [0.0%]

    5. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.216 (-0.098)
    Player: 43.85% (G:15.83% B:0.90%)
    Opponent: 56.15% (G:17.36% B:1.09%)
    Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.232..-0.200) - [0.0%]

    ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)