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  • Crime and Punishment

    From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 6 18:29:23 2023
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Tue Mar 7 08:51:01 2023
    On 3/6/2023 9:29 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    I don't think O can take this. She has a four-point board and X's
    5pt is still open, but there's too much gammon risk. Without Jacoby,
    I'm tempted to play on, but I would double.

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Timothy Chow on Tue Mar 7 09:02:17 2023
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 3/6/2023 9:29 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    I don't think O can take this. She has a four-point board and X's
    5pt is still open, but there's too much gammon risk. Without Jacoby,
    I'm tempted to play on, but I would double.

    I tried to post yesterday, also with a D/P but somehow my post got lost.
    I basically said the same thing as Tim.
    I also calculated the joint probability of us missing the shot and our opponent entering -- this probability is only 20%.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Mar 8 07:49:31 2023
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 12:02:20 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 3/6/2023 9:29 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    I don't think O can take this. She has a four-point board and X's
    5pt is still open, but there's too much gammon risk. Without Jacoby,
    I'm tempted to play on, but I would double.
    I tried to post yesterday, also with a D/P but somehow my post got lost.
    I basically said the same thing as Tim.
    I also calculated the joint probability of us missing the shot and our opponent
    entering -- this probability is only 20%.

    Paul


    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | O X X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.57% (G:32.56% B:2.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G:8.17% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.94% (G:32.95% B:2.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.06% (G:8.33% B:0.39%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.635, Double=+1.291

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.842 (-0.158)
    Double/Take: +1.053 (+0.053)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.831..+0.853)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.034..+1.072)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From pepstein5@gmail.com@21:1/5 to Robert Zimmerman on Wed Mar 8 08:14:30 2023
    On Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 3:49:32 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 12:02:20 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 3/6/2023 9:29 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    I don't think O can take this. She has a four-point board and X's
    5pt is still open, but there's too much gammon risk. Without Jacoby,
    I'm tempted to play on, but I would double.
    I tried to post yesterday, also with a D/P but somehow my post got lost.
    I basically said the same thing as Tim.
    I also calculated the joint probability of us missing the shot and our opponent
    entering -- this probability is only 20%.

    Paul


    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | O X X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.57% (G:32.56% B:2.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G:8.17% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.94% (G:32.95% B:2.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.06% (G:8.33% B:0.39%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.635, Double=+1.291

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.842 (-0.158)
    Double/Take: +1.053 (+0.053)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.831..+0.853)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.034..+1.072)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

    It's a much more marginal pass than Tim and I thought -- interesting.
    Tim and I thought about playing on, but that would be a 0.16 error.

    Paul

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Robert Zimmerman@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Wed Mar 8 11:19:05 2023
    On Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 11:14:31 AM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Wednesday, March 8, 2023 at 3:49:32 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 12:02:20 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    On Tuesday, March 7, 2023 at 1:51:03 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
    On 3/6/2023 9:29 PM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
    Cube action?

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    I don't think O can take this. She has a four-point board and X's
    5pt is still open, but there's too much gammon risk. Without Jacoby, I'm tempted to play on, but I would double.
    I tried to post yesterday, also with a D/P but somehow my post got lost. I basically said the same thing as Tim.
    I also calculated the joint probability of us missing the shot and our opponent
    entering -- this probability is only 20%.

    Paul


    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | O O O X O | | O O |
    | X | | |
    | X | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X X X | | X |
    | O X X X X | | O X X |
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
    Pip count X: 145 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action
    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 68.57% (G:32.56% B:2.27%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G:8.17% B:0.34%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 68.94% (G:32.95% B:2.46%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 31.06% (G:8.33% B:0.39%)

    Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.635, Double=+1.291

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +0.842 (-0.158)
    Double/Take: +1.053 (+0.053)
    Double/Pass: +1.000

    Best Cube action: Double / Pass

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.831..+0.853)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.034..+1.072)

    Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
    Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

    Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
    It's a much more marginal pass than Tim and I thought -- interesting.
    Tim and I thought about playing on, but that would be a 0.16 error.

    Paul

    I thought it was a sizable pass as well. I'm realizing that when I feel unsure on T/P decisions, more often than not I err on the side of passing, failing to see what game is left to play as the underdog. So this position had my attention.
    Bob

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Mar 9 10:01:42 2023
    On 3/8/2023 11:14 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    It's a much more marginal pass than Tim and I thought -- interesting.
    Tim and I thought about playing on, but that would be a 0.16 error.

    Here's another variant---perhaps more interesting than my previous offering---that rolls out to TG.

    XGID=aaBBB-B--a-BBb--b--bCbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 136 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 74.99% (G:38.87% B:2.64%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 25.01% (G:5.43% B:0.27%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 75.11% (G:39.18% B:2.64%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 24.89% (G:5.48% B:0.28%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.014
    Double/Take: +1.532 (+0.518)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.014)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+1.006..+1.022)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+1.518..+1.547)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Timothy Chow@21:1/5 to peps...@gmail.com on Thu Mar 9 09:33:30 2023
    On 3/8/2023 11:14 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
    It's a much more marginal pass than Tim and I thought -- interesting.
    Tim and I thought about playing on, but that would be a 0.16 error.

    Here's a variant that's TG.

    XGID=aa-BBBB--a-ABb--b--bDbbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

    Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
    +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | O O | | O X O O O |
    | | | X |
    | | | X |
    | | | |
    | |BAR| |
    | | O | |
    | | | |
    | | | |
    | X | | X X X X |
    | X X O | | X X X X O |
    +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
    Pip count X: 151 O: 137 X-O: 0-0
    Cube: 1
    X on roll, cube action

    Analyzed in Rollout
    No double
    Player Winning Chances: 78.83% (G:34.94% B:2.57%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 21.17% (G:4.56% B:0.19%)
    Double/Take
    Player Winning Chances: 79.37% (G:34.69% B:2.54%)
    Opponent Winning Chances: 20.63% (G:4.63% B:0.19%)

    Cubeful Equities:
    No double: +1.070
    Double/Take: +1.672 (+0.602)
    Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.070)

    Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
    Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 10.4%

    Rollout:
    1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
    Dice Seed: 271828
    Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
    Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+1.061..+1.079)
    Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.655..+1.690)

    eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

    ---
    Tim Chow

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)